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That's it from the Politics Hub today.

It's been an eventful day, which has seen the government's welfare reforms pass their first hurdle - albeit with 49 Labour backbenchers rebelling against the bill. 

This evening, think tanks have suggested that ministers' last minute concessions mean the bill may lead to no savings, after all. 

Expect to hear more reaction to the reforms tomorrow. For now, though, have a look at the key points above to see how this evening's vote unfolded. 

We'll be back again tomorrow morning. Good night.

Opposition politicians have been reacting to the news that the government's welfare reforms may end up saving no money by 2029/30. 

Helen Whately has said it is "unbelievable".

The shadow work and pensions secretary added: "Only a Labour government could try to spend less and end up spending more.

"But I take no pleasure in their incompetence. The country still has to pay for it."

Meanwhile, the shadow welfare minister has sarcastically congratulated Labour.

Watch: Liz Kendall said there are 'lessons to learn'

Danny Kruger said: "The welfare bill was supposed to save 拢5bn. 

"Last week they gave up 拢2.5bn by creating two tiers of claimant. Then today they scrapped the rest of the PIP reforms - another 拢2bn. 

"Net off the new spending, and the cuts bill is now a spending bill, & no reform. 

"Well done Labour."

Turning away from the government's welfare reforms for just a moment, because Sky News understands that more than 20,000 migrants have now crossed the English Channel so far this year. 

The official figures from the Home Office say that 19,982 people have made the dangerous and illegal journey so far. 

But analysis by Sky News suggests that the true figure has now surpassed 20,000.

This would be a record high for this time in the year. 

Reacting to the figures, Chris Philp said the Conservative Party's original plan of sending migrants to Rwanda would stop crossings "almost immediately".

The shadow home secretary explained: "As soon as an illegal immigrant arrives in this country by small boat, they should be immediately removed - either back to their country of origin if safe, or so some other location outside of Europe like Rwanda.

"If we did that, the crossings would almost immediately stop, because why  bother crossing if you're going to get removed. 

"Australia did it about 12 years ago and it worked. But we have to repeal the Human Rights Act."

A disability charity has warned that the government's welfare reforms will still "strip thousands of pounds in support from disabled people".

Scope said it is right that the government is now consulting with disabled people but has called for a "cast-iron confirmation" that future reforms will "be genuinely co-produced with disabled people, as promised".

James Taylor, the charity's chief executive, said: "Our analysis shows disabled households will face almost 拢15,000 a year in extra costs by 2030. 

"Under these changes, more than 700,000 future Universal Credit health claimants would receive on average 拢3,000 less support each year than claimants do now."

Taylor urged the government to "properly listen and engage with disabled people" and to "address the extra costs they face".

The Resolution Foundation has said the concessions made by the government to appease rebellious MPs means the welfare bill will no longer save any money. 

The left-wing think tank said the welfare reforms will not reduce spending by 2029/30 - but that they could in the longer term.

Ruth Curtice, the group's chief executive, said: "The government originally hoped to save 拢4.8 billion from its welfare reforms in the crucial year of 29/30.

"The upshot of all the concessions this week is it will now not make any net savings in that year.

"The changes to universal credit are nonetheless important for recipients and their work incentives, and are expected to save money in the longer term."

Tax rises look increasingly likely, says IFS

A little earlier, we reported that the Institute for Fiscal Studies' associate director, Tom Waters, said that the concessions may actually cost the government 拢1m - or 拢0.1bn, rather than save cash as ministers had hoped.

Now IFS deputy director Helen Miller has said the concessions mean the welfare reforms are "not expected to deliver any savings over the next four years".

She added that Sir Stephen Timms' review of PIP "may lead to savings", but said this wasn't certain.

She also warned of future tax rises.

Miller said the chancellor can now expect welfare spending to be higher than she expected in March, which will "halve her margin of error".

 "That is before any potential downgrade to the underlying fiscal forecasts", Miller added. 

She continued: "Since departmental spending plans are now effectively locked in, and the government has already had to row back on planned cuts to pensioner benefits and working-age benefits, tax rises would look increasingly likely.

"This will doubtless intensify the speculation over the summer about which taxes may rise and by how much."

Organisations representing disabled people have been reacting to the news that the government's welfare proposals have passed their first big test.

Mikey Erhardt, from Disability Rights UK, told Sky News' Sophy Ridge that MPs tonight "have voted to make big cuts".

"There will still be hundreds of thousands of people affected by changes to universal credit that were in the bill", he added.

Erhardt said his reaction to the bill passing is one of "deep disappointment". 

He also said "the pure chaos and mismanagement" of the process has also damaged disabled people's trust in the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP).

'This has broken trust'

Mental health charity Mind said it is pleased that ministers have finally "started to listen to disabled people", but "this shambolic process has broken trust".

"Some of the most vulnerable people in our society have needlessly gone through turmoil. We have seen this first-hand with an increase in calls to Mind鈥檚 helplines."

Mark Rowland from the Mental Health Foundation said the concessions by the government are "a victory... for millions of people across the country who are disabled".

But he said the bill "remains deeply flawed", with "discriminatory" measures that "do little to support people back into the workplace".

'This cruel bill must be rejected'

Amnesty International, meanwhile, said the cuts to disability benefits are "reckless".

The charity added: "Poverty is a political choice. This government chose it tonight. We'll keep fighting until this cruel bill is rejected completely."

The government brought in its welfare reforms to improve the system, but also to save money.

But now a senior economist at the IFS has warned that he estimates that the bill end up costing the government 拢0.1bn.

Tom Waters, the associate director of the IFS, said: "What do the changes to the UC and PIP bill do?"

He explained that this morning, the bill features a tightening of PIP eligibility, which was estimated to save 拢2.6bn by 2030. 

Alongside these measures, the bill contained a cut to the health element of Universal Credit expected to save 拢1.7bn, as well as a raise to the basic level of UC, which would have cost 拢1.8bn.

He said that now the first measure has effectively been scrapped, "the bill COSTS 拢0.1bn in 2029-30".

Sir Mel Stride has told Sky News the process of reforming welfare has become "absolutely farcical".

The shadow chancellor said this was because "this government rushed it, they didn't approach welfare reform in any principled way, and they botched it".

He warned the vote has left the country in a more "delicate situation" and that he thinks it is "unlikely" the government will be able to "get a grip on the spiralling welfare bill going forward".

Stride also said the government "has been found wanting" on controlling spending, pointing to "unfunded commitments" to reverse cuts to the winter fuel allowance and now the welfare U-turns.

'Vicious loop'

"That, plus slower growth, plus the headwinds we are seeing internationally, means that we go into the autumn in a very delicate situation, with it looking to me highly likely that taxes are going to have to be increased. 

"The consequences of that will be to further slow down the economy. You get into this vicious loop.

"I take no satisfaction from that at all", he added. 

Stride also said the chancellor's "choices are narrowing" and that the markets might take a "jittery view" of any decision to expand borrowing. 

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey is damning in his assessment of how the welfare reform votes played out this evening.

"This is no way to run a country," he says.

"The government should scrap this failed bill altogether and work cross-party to actually bring down the welfare bill by getting people into work."

 Liz Kendall has said there are "absolutely lessons to learn" from the government's efforts to reform the welfare system.

The work and pensions secretary added that she wishes "we had got to this point in a different way", but maintains the plans will "help people get back into work".

She cites "important changes to universal credit" and the "right to try" scheme allowing people to ease their way back into employment.

Challenged on whether her position is even tenable following the government's repeated climbdowns, Kendall said: "I think listening is actually a strength in politics.

"I continue to listen to colleagues."

'A bumpy time' for government

Kendall is also asked about the prime minister's authority and whether this has been undermined. 

She responded: "I think people are 100% behind a prime minister who secured the first Labour government in 14 years. 

"There are definitely lessons to learn from this process. I certainly will do that, and I'm sure my colleagues will too."

Pushed on what these lessons are, she said: "We have agreed on the principles of reform here. We need to make changes to the system and tonight's vote begins to make a start.

"It's been a bumpy time tonight, but we've passed second reading, and we're going to go forward together."