1.7m people 'could be living with dementia in England and Wales by 2040', says new report
It was previously believed that the figure would be closer to 1.2 million. The Alzheimer's Society has highlighted the extra pressure this will put on already-stretched health and social care systems.
Friday 27 October 2023 01:06, UK
A total of 1.7 million could be living with dementia in England and Wales by 2040 鈥� which is over 40% more than previously thought.
New research shines a light on the rising number of cases, meaning the "burden on health and social care might be considerably larger than currently forecast".
The study, led by University College London (UCL) and published in the Lancet Public Health, is an update on previous work suggesting dementia cases in 2040 would reach 1.2 million.
The forecast comes despite cases declining between 2002 and 2008.
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Dr Yuntao Chen, the research's lead author, said: "It is shocking to think that the number of people living with dementia by 2040 may be up to 70% higher than if dementia incidence had continued to decline.
"Not only will this have a devastating effect on the lives of those involved but it will also put a considerably larger burden on health and social care than current forecasts predict.
"Continued monitoring of the incidence trend will be crucial in shaping social care policy."
For the study, experts examined nine sets of data from people over the age of 50, who were living in private households in England between 2002 and 2019.
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An increase in dementia cases has previously been put down to an ageing population, but researchers discovered the rate of older people developing the condition is also rising.
James White, head of national influencing at the Alzheimer's Society, said: "Dementia is the biggest health and social care issue of our time.
"[These statistics] are a stark reminder that, without action, the individual and economic devastation caused by dementia shows no sign of stopping."
He also noted that the numbers mean one in three people born in the UK today will develop dementia.
"The figures also make it clear that pressure on our already struggling social care system is only going to increase," he added.
"Quality social care can make a huge difference to people's lives, but we know that people with dementia - who are the biggest users of social care - are struggling with a care system that's costly, difficult to access, and too often not tailored to their needs."
The Department of Health and Social Care has promised to provide £160m a year for dementia research by 2024/25, a spokeswoman said.
She added: "Our Major Conditions Strategy recognises not only the importance of tackling this disease but will set out the standards patients should expect at all stages of dementia care.
"Our £570m Market Sustainability and Improvement Fund Workforce Fund will increase adult social care capacity, improve market sustainability, and enable local authorities to make tangible improvements to adult social care services."