After Iran's latest attack, what response will Israel choose? It won't be dismissed as just another escalation
Its response may reflect the scale of Iran's assault. With few or no casualties immediately reported, many hope that Israel will moderate its behaviour. Alternatively, the Israelis could unleash overwhelming firepower on Iranian targets.
Tuesday 1 October 2024 20:48, UK
Iran's airborne attack on Israel with nearly 200 missiles will surely keep the diplomats up all night.
They know - and we know - that it cannot be dismissed as just another escalation.
Latest updates on Iranian attack
As far as Iran is concerned, its action was a "legal, rational, and legitimate response" to the deaths of three men.
First, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Iran's most important proxy Hezbollah.
Second, Iran's Brigadier-General Abbas Nilforoushan, who was killed alongside Nasrallah in a Beirut bunker.
Lastly, Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the political wing of Hamas, who was assassinated in July in a Tehran guesthouse.
Iran also issued an accompanying threat - should Israel "dare to respond", it said, "a subsequent and crushing response will ensue".
This is where it gets alarming for those people now trying to keep a lid on the situation in the Middle East.
Israel will respond - in fact, it has already committed itself. As Iran's barrage petered out, Israel Defence Forces (IDF) spokesman Daniel Hargari said: "This [missile] fire will have consequences.
"We have plans, and we will act in the time and place that we choose."
Israel's response
What sort of response will they choose? You can see it two ways.
Its response may reflect the scale of Iran's attack. With few or no casualties immediately reported, many hope that Israel will moderate its behaviour.
Alternatively, the Israelis could unleash overwhelming firepower on Iranian targets.
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is sounding increasingly bellicose, warning earlier this week that there was "nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach. There is nowhere we will not go to protect our people".
The vortex of violence in the region is certainly accelerating.
Read more:
What Sky correspondents on the ground witnessed
'If this is the best Iran can do, Israel will see this up as another win' - analyst
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When Iran targeted Israel with a barrage of 300 projectiles after the bombing of their embassy in Syria in April, Iran telegraphed their attack well in advance.
As a consequence, their operation was toothless - the vast majority of munitions were brought down by Israel and its allies.
This time, we may be stepping into the unknown.
There was little time to prepare for this attack and Iran holds a relatively sophisticated arsenal of ballistic missiles - including hypersonic weapons.
More importantly, the wars on Israel's borders are quickly expanding and we see its enemies shaking off their reluctance to strike out.