Analyst: Conservatives will target young voters at the party conference
With an ageing activist base, the Tories must replenish their ranks by appealing to younger voters, Sky's Michael Thrasher writes.
Monday 2 October 2017 08:03, UK
Proposed changes to the parliamentary boundaries scheduled for implementation before the next election should assist the Conservative Party relative to Labour.
"Should" is the key word here. Boundary changes need parliamentary approval.
Since losing her majority, Theresa May now requires votes from Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party.
The problem is that the DUP don't like the boundary revision and are unlikely to vote for it.
Other parties are also against the revision - another consequence of the Conservatives' failure in June.
But it is not all doom and gloom. On the existing boundaries, the Tories need a swing of just 0.5% to gain the nine seats needed for an overall majority.
A majority of 50 seats - the "bare minimum" many Conservatives were hoping for last time - needs a 2.8% swing from Labour or about an eight-point lead in the national vote.
A number of the target seats lie in Scotland. Here, Ruth Davidson leads the rejuvenated Scottish Conservatives. But the Tories face a real challenge in following her example in other parts of Britain.
The most recent British Election Study finds four in 10 voters are willing to switch support between elections. Party campaigns really matter in these circumstances.
The Conservative activist base is ageing. Replenishment is overdue if it hopes to compete with Labour on anything like equal terms.
Recruiting fresh volunteers among younger age groups is undoubtedly the way forward. Broadening the party's appeal among this generation is a necessity for modernisation.
The Manchester conference will see the Conservatives appealing directly to this demographic.
But this is a tough proposition. Young people, saddled with debt, underemployed and denied access to the housing ladder, may see little merit in the free market.
Scare stories about high-tax, high-spend Labour in the 1970s won't work with people born at the turn of this century.
:: Professor Thrasher is an Associate Member of Nuffield College, Oxford. You can also read his analysis of the and the .