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Analysis

Why the impeachment inquiry could reshape Trump's presidency

At very least, notes from a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy put Donald Trump on very uncomfortable ground.

Donald Trump
Image: An upcoming impeachment investigation will likely further divide the country
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What is somewhat surprising about the call between Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is how ready the White House was to release details about it.

At very least, it puts Donald Trump on very uncomfortable ground. The Democrats believed the transcript would prove Mr Trump lent on the Ukrainian leader to investigate his political rival Joe Biden.

Even from the notes of that call (it's not a verbatim account), it would appear they were right.

Former US vice president Joe Biden is facing accusations of inappropriate behaviour toward women
Image: Joe Biden is a former vice president and Democratic frontrunner in the 2020 race

The US president repeatedly pushes Mr Zelenskiy to investigate the Democratic presidential candidate and his son Hunter - and repeatedly asks him to speak to the Attorney General William Barr about it.

Just to be clear, Mr Barr is supposed to defend the legal interests of the US - not Mr Trump.

There is no explicit reference evidence in this five-page document of a quid pro quo though. Mr Trump's team may believe that vindicates him.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi already tried to get ahead of that on Tuesday, saying you do not need a quid pro quo in order for the president's actions to be considered wrong.

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She said: "If the president brings up, he wants them to investigate something of his political opponent that is self-evident, that it is not right. We don't ask foreign governments to help us in our elections...

"There is no requirement there be a quid pro quo in the conversation."

The front page of a White House memorandum describing President Trump's call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy
Image: The front page of a White House memorandum describing the call

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Trump 'betrayed his oath of office'

Some of this will come down to tone and subtext. Was there an underlying message?

In the call, Mr Trump talked about how much the US does for Ukraine and then went on to asks Mr Zelenskiy to do him a "favour". Some won't see anything malign in that, others will view it as an implied threat.

President Trump told his counterpart 'we do a lot for Ukraine'.
Image: President Trump told his counterpart 'we do a lot for Ukraine'.

What we do know is that when the leaders spoke, they knew hundreds of millions of dollars worth of foreign aid had been withheld. There was big money at stake.

The political stakes for the president couldn't be higher. This impeachment investigation will likely further divide the country. It could also reshape the presidency.

Partisan divides are already apparent. Some Republicans like Lindsey Graham say Trump was right to pursue Mr Biden's possible "conflict of interest" and that a lot of people thought then prosecutor was corrupt.

And it seems Trump's supporters are on the defensive too - three hours after Mrs Pelosi's announcement, the Trump campaign raised $1 million online for the "Official Impeachment Defence Task Force."

Donald Trump repeatedly urged Ukraine to investigate political rival Joe Biden
Donald Trump repeatedly urged Ukraine to investigate political rival Joe Biden

Democrats though now have a far more concrete piece of evidence to investigate than they did with the Russia investigation and we still haven't seen the full whistleblower's report or heard their evidence.

The public may quickly grow weary of this inquiry, but many on Capitol Hill will spend months discussing it.

For better or worse, it will dominate the 2020 election.