Blinken and Xi claim 'good progress' but have little concrete they can point to
China's approach to the US Secretary of State's visit was to make just enough conciliatory gestures and words to present itself as a responsible player, but to refuse to budge on its core principles and red lines.
Tuesday 20 June 2023 03:50, UK
It was the crowning moment of a trip that has been cloaked in diplomatic jeopardy.
Anthony Blinken's meeting with President Xi Jinping was just thirty minutes long, complete with stiff body language and stony faces. The fact it wasn't even confirmed until an hour before it happened offering a sense of just how fragile things were right up until the last minute.
On the one hand, the fact it even happened could be interpreted as a gesture of good will. It wouldn't necessarily be a snub for presidents to only want to meet with their opposite number and Blinken was also received in the Great Hall of the People, a venue usually reserved for leaders.
But it also perfectly encapsulated China's approach to this whole visit; just enough conciliatory gestures and words to present itself as a responsible player, but absolutely no budging on its core principles and red lines.
Indeed, while both President Xi and Blinken both spoke about "good progress" in mending relations, there was little concrete they could point to.
Blinken highlighted in his press conference that there was a pledge to stabilise the relationship and prevent things descending into conflict, he also said that communications would continue including visits from other US officials "in the coming weeks".
But that was, it seemed, about as far as substantive progress went.
US abjectly failed to deliver
There was a far longer list of issues Blinken raised with the Chinese with no notable moves forward, everything from Taiwan to the treatment of US companies in China, from human rights to detained US citizens, from military aggression to economic issues.
And there were significant key objectives which the US abjectly failed to deliver - most importantly on re-establishing military to military communications. This is seen as a vital part of creating a "mechanism for managing crisis" to ensure that any missteps or accidents can be negotiated and don't escalate into conflict.
The Chinese have apparently refused to agree on this, largely because senior military figures including the defence minister are currently subject to US sanctions.
Read more: Chinese foreign minister: US risks 'catastrophic' conflict
But this offers an interesting insight into how the Chinese have approached this visit, while publicly agreeing on the need to cooperate, it is China's interests and approaches that have remained front and centre.
Indeed, China has very actively taken the opportunity to put on the record some of its key issues and grievances . There is nothing new about them, but it knows the world is watching.
This morning, for instance, Wang Yi, China's top diplomat told Blinken that the US should stop speculating on the "China threat" and abandon its "suppression" of Chinese growth and development.
It is also very notable that Xi chose to remark while the cameras were still rolling, that "face to face meetings should be based on mutual respect and sincerity" - the indication clearly that it hasn't always been the case.
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The message in the round was a clear one: that in Chinese eyes America must shoulder most of the blame for why relations are as bad as they are.
And that is why really meaningful progress, beyond mere communication, may be highly unlikely. The bottom line is that China sees America as out to contain it and impose its way of doing things, and in that context compromise would be seen as weakness.
It is worth remembering that nobody expected any major breakthrough on this trip, relations were so bad a visit even happening is being billed as a degree of progress.
But there is very much still a sense that this relationship remains highly fragile and could quite easily be de-railed again .
As Blinken put it: "Progress is hard, it takes time."