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Analysis

Boris Johnson's Brexit clause will increase the chance of no-deal Brexit

Rob Powell, Sky's political correspondent, answers the key questions on what is going on with Brexit now.

Leave supporters outside Parliament
Image: Britain is due to leave the EU on 31 January
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Boris Johnson is changing his Brexit law. Sky News political correspondent Rob Powell explains why and what it means.

What is the government planning to change in its Brexit legislation?

The prime minister wants to add a new clause into his Brexit law that would rule out any extension to the transition period.

Currently, this stand-still period - where we will essentially have the same relationship with the EU as we do now - will come into force when we leave on 31 January and finish at the end of 2020.

Boris Johnson's majority means the Withdrawal Bill is likely to pass
Image: Boris Johnson's majority means he is less vulnerable to rebellious MPs

It can be extended by up to two years, if both the UK and EU agree. This change would make it illegal in the UK for the government to do this.

Does this practically change anything?

Boris Johnson has repeatedly said he does not want to extend the transition period.

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Now he has a healthy majority in parliament, MPs will not be able to force his hand. So this change makes very little practical difference.

The prime minister is essentially passing a law to stop himself doing something he doesn't want to do and can't be forced to do.

The government could also change the law again later next year and get rid of the new clause if it decided an extension would be a good idea - although this is quite unlikely.

What's the point then?

This is all about sending a message to voters that the government is not going to delay the Brexit process in the way previous administrations have.

Perhaps more importantly, it also makes it clear to the EU that the end of 2020 is a hard deadline and if no agreement is reached by then, the UK is prepared to leave without a trade deal.

The hope will be that it focuses minds in Brussels and encourages EU negotiators to offer improved terms in a bid to avoid a 'no trade deal' exit.

Boris Johnson says every Tory candidate in the general election has told him they will back his Brexit deal in the next parliament
Image: Mr Johnson on the campaign trail

Will MPs get a say on extending the transition period?

No. This was offered earlier in the year to tempt Labour MPs into voting for Boris Johnson's deal. It has now been taken out of the legislation because the prime minister has a majority and so doesn't need the help of the opposition to get his deal approved.

So does this mean no-deal is more likely?

It does increase the chances of the UK leaving without a deal on the future relationship.

This is separate to the divorce deal which has already been finalised with the EU. The divorce deal covers issues such as citizens' rights, financial obligations and the Irish border and will allow us to leave on 31 January.

The future relationship deal will cover trade issues such as tariffs and product standards, as well as other areas such as security co-operation and data sharing.

The new clause all but confirms that if this deal is not ready to go by the end of 2020, the UK will leave on World Trade Organisation terms.

Boris Johnson has urged MPs not to repeat Saturday's Commons vote for a further delay
Image: The PM's new clause will increase the chance of a no-deal Brexit

Is it possible to do a trade deal by the end of next year?

We simply don't know.

The government claims it is because the UK and the EU are currently fully aligned in areas such as tariffs and standards. However opposition parties and voices across the EU have expressed doubt.

Boris Johnson has said he wants the trade deal to be similar to the agreement the EU has with Canada.

This is extensive and has eliminated 98% of tariffs on goods traded between the two parties. But it took seven years to strike. This deal will have to be agreed and implemented in less than one year.

Some former government staffers have suggested that a scaled back deal could be struck before the end of 2020 and then built on over time. Most people on both sides of the Channel agree it is a very challenging timescale.

What will businesses in the UK make of this?

Business groups have consistently called for the government to strike a comprehensive free trade agreement that will allow frictionless trade with the EU.

Nigel Farage at the Tolley Fabrications factory in Sedgefield
Image: Nigel Farage's Brexit Party has been neutralised

The prime minister has said that "in all circumstances" the UK will be leaving the EU's single market and customs union - two key planks of the European trade block concerning standards and taxation.

The government has also indicated that the UK will not sign up to any form of 'common rule book' with the EU.

That means it is almost certain there will be an increased level of trade friction between the UK and EU going forward. How much depends on the size and scope of the agreement. That will be affected by the rapid timescale.

Any barriers to trade will concern business, but the certainty of knowing the UK will fully leave the EU's trading zones at the end of 2020 will likely be welcomed.

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Is no-deal preparation still taking place?

Elements of no-deal preparation that have already been carried out will be kept in place and built on in case no trading agreement is reached.

However don't expect to hear much about it as the spectre of no-deal clashes with the straightforward Tory election promise to "get Brexit done".

Government officials claim a lot of the work to prepare for no-deal is already in place.

They also say another media campaign to get the country ready is not needed because businesses were prepared for a no-deal on 31 October and now have the certainty that we will be fully leaving the EU at the end of 2020.

That is true to an extent. But there is also less political value now in talking about no-deal as Nigel Farage's Brexit Party has been neutralised, Boris Johnson has a healthy majority and once troublesome Brexiteers are broadly on board with the government's plans.