Both Tories and Labour are split over a pre-Xmas election
It may not happen this side of the festive season, but Mr Johnson's people versus parliament election is not dead yet.
Friday 25 October 2019 09:48, UK
Boris Johnson on Thursday called for another general election, but in truth he knows he won't get one - yet.
Still it was a clever device to distract from the admission he'd rather bury. That he will break his "do or die" promise to leave the EU on 31 October.
Writing to Jeremy Corbyn asking him to agree to a poll on 12 December, the prime minister finally wrote down what he perhaps cannot bear to say out loud: "My view has never changed that we should leave on 31 October."
However, it is clear from public and private comments of Donald Tusk that it is likely that the EU will offer a delay until 31 January, though it is possible that a shorter delay will be offered.
Mr Johnson said only last month he'd rather "die in a ditch" than ask for this delay. And yet he has now confirmed that extension is on its way.
His no-deal Brexit blocked and his Brexit Bill paused, the prime minister is stuck in the trenches with no clear way out.
It is undoubtedly a blow. This is a prime minister who won the leadership campaign on his promise to quit the EU on 31 October.
It has been the motif of his time in No 10. He pledged to succeed where Theresa May failed and yet in eight days time he will be forced to delay Brexit for a third time.
Brexit is not in his gift, neither is a general election. On Thursday he called on Labour to support one, making them an offer; if the opposition agreed to an election on 12 December, he would allow more parliamentary time - up until 6 November - for MPs to scrutinise his Brexit Bill.
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But Mr Johnson needs two thirds of MPs to vote for an election under the Fixed Term Parliament Act and Mr Corbyn has made it crystal clear he will not be bounced, announcing tonight that Labour will not support a general election until a no-deal exit is taken off the table.
Mr Corbyn has said for more than two years he wants an election but he is now buying time, waiting to see what the terms of that extension are.
Many in his party - perhaps the majority of MPs - don't want an election and have signalled to the leadership they will not support one, even if Mr Corbyn is ready to go.
The leader's office is taking a wait-and-see approach. The perfect outcome would be Brussels offering a short extension - until 15 November - to allow parliament to try to pass the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which could be extended to 31 January if the deal fails.
This would inevitably postpone any election into the New Year and avoid a showdown with MPs. And even if Mr Corbyn does want an election, perhaps even half of his parliamentary party do not. Better for him then to try to push on for a deal first and leave Mr Johnson in limbo.
And it's not just Labour. Mr Johnson's top team is also divided on whether to go for an election in December. There are some in cabinet who would prefer the prime minister to bring back his Brexit Bill and try to get it passed in November.
They think the government has a chance of getting it through if it's willing to make concessions.
The terms of the divorce agreed, Mr Johnson could then reset the details of a future free trade deal with the EU via the ballot box anyway if he won a post-Brexit general election.
Those misgivings cascade down the party. Many Conservative MPs are wary of a pre-Brexit poll. The One Nation caucus of MPs met on Thursday to voice their concerns about pushing on with an election before Brexit is settled.
"There'll be losses to the Lib Dems, losses in Scotland, settling Brexit will make all the difference," is how one of them put it to me. And in Vote Leave land, there is nervousness that the Brexit party could cannibalise the Tory vote.
In truth, the prime minister is in a weak position: He has a working majority of minus 45; he cannot get his Brexit deal through without serious concessions to Labour and other soft Brexiteers; and the Fixed Term Parliament Act dictates that he cannot call a general election without the support of two-third of MPs. He is stuck.
Labour might have agreed a programme motion to try to pass the Withdrawal Agreement Bill through the Commons. But it won't agree to a general election attached to that process - for now.
No 10 knows this, but it also knows that if Mr Corbyn rejects the offer, they can at least frame the Labour party as Brexit blockers running scared from the public.
Because if we don't have an election this side of Christmas, we will have one on the other side.
So if Mr Johnson doesn't get his election yet he can at least spend the next few weeks campaigning for the people to - in his words - be "released from subjection to a parliament that has outlived its usefulness".
His people versus parliament election delayed, but certainly not dead.