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Brexit: Festive break like no other lies ahead as parliament kicks can into next year

There is little sign of the Christmas compromise the prime minister needs from Brussels, says Sky's Faisal Islam.

Theresa May speaks outside 10 Downing Street after a confidence vote by Conservatives
Image: Mrs May is hoping for a legally binding addendum on the Northern Ireland backstop
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It will be a festive political break like no other. Teams of civil servants will be charged with spending millions preparing legislation and further contingency plans to prepare for a historic hard break from the EU.

It's a prospect the government says it wants to avoid and a clear Commons majority suggest they will try to veto it.

When the political narrative from the prime minister is that MPs have work to do in order to come up with a Brexit compromise, taking 18 days off, while the civil service beavers away, is not a great look, and during this break there will be pressure for an early return from recess.

But above all, Theresa May hopes that some time at home with family and constituents will refocus the minds of over 100 of her own MPs and the DUP, and leave them with a post-advent open mind.

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Brexit debate is 'nebulous', not PM

Her job - or at least that of her top negotiator, Oliver Robbins - is to return from Brussels with a legally binding addendum that makes clear that if the backstop becomes permanent, the UK can exercise rights to leave unilaterally.

But there is little evidence that the EU are talking right now or if it will do so over the Christmas break.

Indeed, the very real doubts that the prime minister encountered at last week's Brussels summit were not necessarily just about the idea of a legally binding reassurance over the backstop.

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There was a fundamental doubt that there would be any point trying to offer such a concession to a leader who did not even dare call the vote she had promised she could pass.

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Labour MP: 'No need for a backstop'

Such a concession might be better saved until the vote is actually lost, was the thinking. And indeed, any concession would require Dublin's active consent.

The message Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar gave to me in Brussels was that he thought if the Commons does not want to pass this deal, the backstop is here to stay, and Mrs May should ponder seeking the delay of, or revoking entirely, the Article 50 notice.

The Labour leadership too is playing for time.

You don't have to employ a lipreader to see an opposition unwilling to use its most potent weapon of a full Commons no confidence vote and unable to take full advantage of the current tumult.

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Rees-Mogg: You win some, you lose some

Over the past year, the Labour leadership has been been squeezed by its membership and shadow cabinet to move at a glacial pace towards more of a Remain position.

But over Christmas and into the New Year, there will be no hiding place.

Jeremy Corbyn will have to come off the fence in the first half of January on the referendum coveted by many of his supporters.

As the Labour leader told me in Lisbon earlier this month, his supporters who sport "Love Corbyn Hate Brexit" tote bags "are not wrong".

We are on the cusp of momentous events that could properly split both major parties, see widespread economic and diplomatic turmoil, and lead rapidly to another major national poll of some description within months.

When push came to shove parliament decided to kick the can into January.

Christmas recess is a brief pause before that road officially runs out.

A festive truce appears to have started, but there is little sign of the Christmas compromise the prime minister needs.