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Analysis

Brexit vote defeat worsens Theresa May's hand in EU negotiations

Tories fail to support Theresa May's Brexit plan which could take control out of her hands, Kate McCann writes.

Prime Minister Theresa May leaves the Houses of Parliament
Image: MPs have fired a warning shot to Theresa May
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The prime minister has lost a vote designed to reaffirm support for her decision to return to Brussels and reach a new agreement with EU leaders on the UK's exit from the bloc.

Although the vote was not binding, meaning it has no real bearing on what happens next in legal terms, it is politically significant and puts Theresa May in a more difficult position during negotiations.

Her ministers had repeatedly warned MPs that losing the vote would impact her ability to prove to Brussels she has a majority for the new plan.

In turn, this could make it harder for her to negotiate, in what is already a very tricky situation, with the EU claiming they will not reopen the withdrawal agreement and make the changes she needs.

Theresa May suffered a defeat in the Commons on Valentine's Day
Image: Theresa May suffered a defeat in the Commons on Valentine's Day

Brussels has already expressed an interest in Labour's plan for a softer Brexit, which opens the door to a customs union and single market relationship.

Without a majority for her plan, that could look even more attractive as a way to break the deadlock.

But MPs from both the Leave and Remain wings of the Conservative party chose to abstain, voting neither for or against, leading to a government loss at a crucial moment for the prime minister.

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MPs from the eurosceptic European Research Group (ERG) said they could not back the motion because it would commit them to supporting a previous amendment which ruled out a no-deal.

Those who want to remain in the EU believed voting in favour would also mean backing calls for the Northern Irish backstop to be renegotiated, something they do not support.

In truth, the loss will damage the prime minister politically but it won't tie her hands legally when it comes to future negotiations.

The impact will be felt more keenly in the coming weeks though and adds credibility to talk of resignations in order to force her hand.

MPs have fired a warning shot, showing Mrs May very clearly that they are prepared to watch her fall in order to get the outcome they want - or avoid the one they don't.

Aerial view of Palace of Westminster
Image: As the sun set on Westminster, Theresa May's motion was defeated

The prime minister had believed opening talks on the so-called Malthouse compromise would be enough to keep MPs on side but a failure on her part to adopt it as the formal compromise or to pledge to do so meant many felt unable to support her in the vote.

Similarly, remain-supporting ministers and MPs are growing increasingly concerned that the prime minister is taking the UK dangerously close to leaving without a deal.

Her refusal to rule this out in public is their reason for digging in and voting against her today.

Both sides want to send a clear message, and it is borne out of a lack of trust.

They simply no longer believe that Mrs May is listening to them, or is prepared to bend to ease their concerns.

Without that trust she can no longer rely on her own MPs to support her endeavours in Brussels, and without their backing parliament could yet take control of the process out of her hands.