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Analysis

Conservative leadership: Boris Johnson will never be more powerful than he is now

A successful command of the House of Commons is key to stopping a Boris Johnson government falling apart early on.

Conservative party leadership contender Boris Johnson
Image: Boris Johnson has been kept away from the TV cameras
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As it stands, Boris Johnson is set to become prime minister in a little over a month with nothing other than a catastrophic gaffe likely to stand in his way.

In last week's first round of voting, the former foreign secretary easily secured the support of the 105 MPs needed to reach the final ballot of the Conservative Party membership.

Indeed, Mr Johnson's 114-vote first round win last Thursday was such a comprehensive victory that his opponents have been left scattered and wounded.

Conservative leadership debate – be in the audience
Conservative leadership debate � be in the audience

Sky News is planning to host a live leadership debate between the final two contenders to replace Theresa May as Conservative leader, and you could be in the audience.

In recent days, Mr Johnson's team has kept him away from TV appearances, arguing that he needs to consolidate and improve his support among MPs.

At first glance this claim seems like a hollow excuse simply designed to keep the TV cameras at bay in case he makes a mistake.

There is perhaps some truth in this, although it would take a truly epic mistake for the former London mayor to drop out now.

The Johnson camp are right to attach huge importance to parliamentary numbers even at this stage, since their goal is to govern rather than simply attain victory in the balloting of MPs.

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Firstly, those around Mr Johnson know that a divided parliamentary party will send a message of disunity to Tory members in the country, possibly increasing the slim chance of an upset when the final two candidates are put to the party's grassroots.

They would love to have more than half of Tory MPs having backed Mr Johnson before the vote goes to the country, to give them the strongest possible platform to launch the campaign to win among the 160,000 Conservative members.

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Johnson's team 'won't allow him out to debate'

Secondly, and more importantly, those around Mr Johnson are very conscious they do not have an electoral mandate.

Britain faces a change of prime minister without a general election.

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Even with the DUP, a Johnson administration would have a working majority of just five, meaning he will lose a House of Commons vote if just three Tory MPs rebel and vote with a united opposition.

For Mr Johnson to have the longest possible run before a general election, his team need as many Tory MPs lining up behind him to pressure colleagues to be loyal.

Confidence and a successful command of the Commons are key to stop a Johnson government falling apart early on.

There is a need to minimise dissent, right from the off, since the maths in the Commons is awful.

The contenders to succeed Theresa May
The contenders to succeed Theresa May

The race for the Conservative Party leadership is hotting up after the first round of voting by MPs

This explains the appointment of ex-defence secretary Gavin Williamson, also a former chief whip, whose robust approach to whipping will be vital to a successful operation.

So Mr Johnson's claim that meeting MPs is more important than encountering journalists may hold a lot of truth.

As the soaraway frontrunner, Mr Johnson will never be more powerful than he is now.

He needs to use that influence if he wants to stay in office for a long time to come.