Conservatives set to take seats in Labour's northern heartlands
While the Labour vote is down across the country, it is losing most votes in the North and Midlands, Sky Data suggests.
Tuesday 16 May 2017 16:43, UK
Labour is set to lose even more seats than its polling deficit suggests, with the Conservatives taking more votes in its northern heartlands, according to Sky Data.
While the Labour vote is down across the country, it is losing most votes in the North and Midlands - down 11 points in the North East, seven in Yorkshire and Humber and six in the West Midlands.
If its current polling continues through to the General Election, the party could lose 12 seats in the West Midlands, five in Yorkshire and the Humber and six in the North East - including, symbolically and ominously, Tony Blair's old seat of Sedgefield.
::
The Conservatives, meanwhile, could enjoy an unlikely position in winning the most votes in both the North East and Yorkshire - and perhaps the majority of seats to boot.
In contrast, Labour is holding its ground far more effectively in southern areas where they have little prospect of picking up seats - and there are fewer seats for them to lose.
They're effectively unchanged from their 2015 vote share in the South East and East of England - where they hold just eight seats.
Across the North, it is those at each end of the social spectrum who are abandoning the Labour Party.
Sky Data divided the population into five main groups - Thriving, Up and Coming, Just About Managing, Struggling, and Young Bohemians.
The Thriving - workers on high incomes and retirees with good pensions and plenty of savings - have always been more disposed to vote Conservative. But across the North their vote share is up 12 points to 64%, while Labour are down 12 points to 14%
The Struggling, on the other hand, are generally far less likely to vote Conservative - particularly in the North.
Again, though, they are abandoning the Labour Party - they're down 11 points, shared between the Liberal Democrats (up five points) and the Conservatives (up six).
Across the South, the Thriving again are moving from Labour (down five points) and UKIP (down seven) to the Conservatives (up 12).
But southern Young Bohemians - younger voters on low incomes but with few financial commitments - are one of the few groups to have given a real boost for the Labour Party, who are up eight points.
Younger voters are notoriously less likely to turn out, however.
And the pattern of the vote across the country looks set to make a seemingly impossible task even more daunting for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.