Contest to replace Theresa May as PM could expose Tories' few good options
Sky News' Tom Rayner says the field of up 20 contenders may not leave MPs feeling spoilt for choice.
Monday 20 May 2019 18:08, UK
As Conservative MPs survey the options for their next leader, they might be forgiven for feeling spoilt for choice.
With the race to replace Theresa May likely to begin formally within weeks, there are already well over 20 candidates seriously considering a run.
Some like Boris Johnson, Esther McVey and Rory Stewart have already explicitly announced their intention, Dominic Raab has effectively done the same, while others with campaign teams already up and running continue their increasingly implausible public coquettishness - like Matt Hancock, who said today "I don't rule out standing".
"Wait and see", has been the phrase used by both Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt, despite the both men using recent speeches to stray onto policy subjects way beyond their respective government briefs.
The safe assumption is that each of these figures will at the very least have a tilt in the early stages.
But when Tory MPs start the process of whittling the field down to the final two for the ballot of the party members, will this broad range of options prove to be an embarrassment of riches, or ultimately underline the fundamental absence of any good options?
There is a good chance the answer could end up being the latter.
By normal political laws of gravity, Theresa May would have been ditched by her party the morning after the 2017 general election.
She had gone into that snap vote asking the British public to strengthen her hand ahead of Brexit negotiations with the EU, but in reality it was as much about ensuring she had a sufficient Commons majority domestically to avoid the kind of parliamentary paralysis we have seen play out.
She lost that majority and worsened the very problem she was attempting to alleviate, but was given a stay of execution because there was no obvious alternative leader or approach available.
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When her Brexiteer critics finally managed to trigger a confidence vote in her leadership last December, it failed for that very same reason - Mrs May was by no means popular or well regarded by the majority of her party, but the fact she won the vote indicated the majority nonetheless felt there was no better option.
Despite losing three votes on her Brexit deal, very little has changed in terms of the dynamics of the background leadership race.
There may now be a clear front-runner candidate in the form of Boris Johnson, but a favourite is not the same thing as a consensus candidate.
That Mrs May is now being ousted is not because there is a suddenly an obvious replacement, but because patience in the party has finally run out.
Her failure to deliver Brexit on 29 March, and the holding of European Parliament elections have ultimately proved to be the final straw.
And yet her successor will, in all likelihood, not be embarking on a fresh start, with space and time to develop a new approach, but instead be immediately plunged into taking the deeply divisive decisions that Theresa May has desperately sought to avoid.
From day one they will face the question of whether to respond to the pressure created by Nigel Farage's Brexit Party and embrace a no-deal departure from the EU in October.
If they opt to do so, they might well need to seek a fresh majority by means of a general election this year to avoid parliamentary attempts to block it.
But doing so would likely see a number of Tory MPs quit, and a significant number of voters who may have once voted Conservative abandon the party for good.
Perhaps the hardline Brexiteers that Mr Farage has mobilised around the country could fold back in behind that kind of approach by a new prime minister to such a degree that it made up for losses of remain-inclined voters, but it would be a major electoral gamble.
And yet there is no obvious safe option.
Could a pledge to renegotiate the backstop ever be realised in the face of the repeated refusal of Brussels to engage in such a process? Unlikely.
Can the withdrawal agreement be detoxified once Mrs May is out of the picture and still form the basis of Brexit? Unlikely.
Could any Tory leader - Brexiteer or otherwise - be politically dextrous enough to propose a confirmatory referendum as a route out of the malaise without seeing the party rupture irreconcilably? Unlikely.
These are the questions that underpin the choice Conservative MPs face when cast their eyes across the candidates.
They can expect 20 or more different answers to those questions, but far from being spoilt for choice, they could well realise there really is no good option.