Coronavirus: Social distancing may have already reduced infection rate
The medical director of NHS England said early evidence showed people were no longer passing the virus to multiple people.
Friday 3 April 2020 09:25, UK
Social distancing measures may have already reduced the transmission rate of coronavirus, an expert has said.
Professor Stephen Powis, medical director of NHS England, said on Thursday that early evidence showed people were no longer passing the on to multiple people.
He said that without the measures an infected person would, on average, pass the virus on to three other people - but that rate may have now dropped below one.
Speaking at the daily Downing Street press conference, he said: "We know from evidence around the world, that if there are no social distancing measures in place, one person probably infects on average nearly three people.
"And so if you just work through the maths of that ... you very rapidly get into very, very high numbers."
By cutting this rate, he added, the curve could begin to flatten and eventually start "going in the opposite direction. It starts to drop."
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"So that is why we spend a lot of time talking about transmission and avoiding contact, that is the whole purpose of stay-at-home and social distancing, so that that number of people an individual infects on average falls."
Echoing this sentiment, health secretary Matt Hancock said the evidence suggested the rate of transmission was becoming more linear, instead of exponential.
He added: "If people want to see the lockdown ended, they know what to do."