COVID-19: 'Change of course' on Oxford jab is a cautious move - but there are some inconsistencies
Even though there is no proof the vaccine caused blood clots, UK authorities couldn't ignore evidence that was getting "firmer".
Thursday 8 April 2021 09:29, UK
There is always a balance between risk and benefit for medicines.
But the balance for using the AstraZeneca vaccine in the under-30s has been judged to be too fine - and as a precaution the UK medicines' regulator says young adults will be given an alternative jab instead.
The concern is over clots that stop blood from draining from the brain, causing a stroke. And unusually they are associated with a low platelet count.
According to the European Medicines Agency, there have been 86 cases in the 25 million people given the vaccine up to 22 March.
Most were in women under 60. They're not the usual risk group for a stroke, which is why there has been concern, even though the risk is so low.
There is no doubt that in older people the benefits of vaccination in preventing COVID far outweigh any risk of clotting.
People over the age of 80 have a 2.4% chance of dying if they become infected with COVID, according to the Office for National Statistics.
But the risk of death to someone in their 20s is around 0.002%. Young people are likely to spread the virus because of their high contact rate, but they are very unlikely to die from it.
If the benefits of vaccination are small then a jab has to be ultra-safe. And even though there is no proof the AstraZeneca vaccine is the cause of the clots, the UK authorities couldn't ignore evidence that was getting "firmer", as they put it.
But there are inconsistencies with the new plan.
Those under 30 who have yet to be vaccinated will be given either the Pfizer or Moderna shot.
But people of the same age who have already had one dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine will still be offered the same jab second time around.
That's puzzling. If it's a risk to one group then it's a risk to both.
The age cutoff in the UK of 30 is also at odds with many other countries. Canada and France have suspended use of the AstraZeneca vaccine in the under 55s. Germany has drawn the line at 60.
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Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, England's deputy chief medical officer told me it was "absurd" not to give the vaccine to the middle-aged.
Confidence in the AstraZeneca vaccine has plunged on the Continent in recent weeks.
But it has remained high in the UK - and you can expect government ministers and their medical advisers doing all they can to encourage people not to lose faith.