COVID-19: Lockdown gains will be undone if tier rules are relaxed before Christmas, Imperial College London scientists warn
A study finds that national infection rates in mid-November were almost a third lower than they were at the end of October.
Monday 30 November 2020 14:48, UK
COVID-19 will quickly bounce back, undoing the gains made during lockdown, if the government relaxes strict controls on social distancing in the run-up to Christmas, according to scientists behind a massive new study of infection rates.
Researchers from Imperial College London swabbed more than 100,000 people across England as part of the REACT-1 study, one of the most reliable snapshots of the pandemic.
They found that, nationally, infection rates in mid-November, well into lockdown, were almost a third lower than they were at the end of October.
But rates fell more - by half - in areas of the North that had been living under Tier 3 restrictions for several weeks before lockdown.
Professor Paul Elliott, one of the lead researchers, said: "These trends suggest that the tiered approach helped to curb infections in these areas and that lockdown has added to this effect.
"As we approach a challenging time of year, it's even more vital that through our actions and behaviours we all play our part in helping to keep the virus at bay."
The researchers say the patchwork of different restrictions in the run-up to lockdown undermined the national impact. They say the broader regional approach of the new tiers is more likely to work.
Some MPs with rural constituencies that are in Tier 3 despite having lower rates are urging the prime minister to rethink the system.
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But the Imperial researchers said case rates are only one factor that affects the need for restrictions.
Hospital catchments can include urban and rural areas. If the local NHS is under pressure from COVID admissions then strict controls are needed to reduce infections across the region, they warned.
The study shows that while rates are falling in adults, they are still rising in children who have continued to go to school during lockdown.
That will cause alarm. The government's focus has been on getting university students safely home for Christmas, with mass testing and an early end to face-to-face teaching.
But rates are now highest in children of secondary school age and with term ending just a few days before Christmas, they may now pose the greatest risk to elderly relatives.
The researchers urged people to be sensible over Christmas and maintain social distancing at home, particularly in the presence of vulnerable relatives.