COVID-19: PM's gamble to end restrictions comes with strings attached - and it's a nail-biting moment for us all
From next week it will be left to each of us to manage this pandemic, writes Beth Rigby, but there is no guarantee how that will turn out.
Monday 12 July 2021 22:24, UK
When the prime minister set out his "cautious but irreversible route" out of lockdown in February, the final lifting of all restrictions was billed as the finishing line.
But as the day finally approaches, we are instead moving into another gear and another stage of the journey.
When it comes to COVID-19 there is not, in the words of one No 10 figure, a "Mission Accomplished moment" in which Downing Street declares victory (prematurely).
Instead, the government is trying to shift us to a new phase in which we move from government diktat to personal and corporate responsibility - we learn to live with COVID.
But doing away with the rules and instead asking us to take decisions about government recommendations even as infection rates and hospital admissions rise is nerve-racking.
And it's why Boris Johnson was at pains on Monday to stress that 19 July was "not an invitation for a giant jubilee".
"I cannot say this powerfully or emphatically enough: this pandemic is not over," he said.
What is ending is a policy framework determined by the government to manage the virus.
The only legal requirement left beyond 19 July will be to self-isolate if you have COVID or come into close contact with an infected person for another three-and-a-half weeks until 16 August.
With one eye on the impending surge in cases during the summer third wave, Mr Johnson did try to implore people and businesses to take responsibility for trying to limit transmission. And this was a big shift in emphasis.
On face masks, the prime minister said it was his "expectation" - last week it was a "suggestion" - that people continue to wear them in crowded indoor spaces.
He also urged businesses to bring workers back to offices gradually and told nightclubs and other venues with crowds to use vaccine passports on entry "as a matter of social responsibility".
But it is a nail-biting moment.
Both Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance were clear on Monday that there will be an exit wave and the more the public stick with the behaviour of the past year and ease out of restrictions slowly, the better we'll manage it.
Do it at pace, and the risk is the NHS will become overwhelmed.
Professor Whitty stressed at the press briefing on Monday that modelling suggested the pressure on the NHS would not be "unsustainable" if done slowly.
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But the numbers are concerning.
With hospitalisation rates now growing at almost the same rate as cases, admissions could hit 1,000 to 2,000 people a day with 100 to 200 daily deaths, according to the latest modelling.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid has warned of cases rising to 100,000 a day in the coming weeks. When the numbers hit those sorts of levels, it will be hard for ministers to hold their nerve.
But this exit wave is different in two critical ways.
The vaccine has weakened the link between hospitalisations and deaths and the vaccine rollout, coupled with surging infection rates, gives ministers hopes that eventually the virus will run out of steam as the population builds immunity via a jab or infection.
What is also different is the prime minister's confidence that he can move us beyond COVID in an "irreversible" way.
Not only does "Freedom Day" come with strings attached, but with the very real prospect that elements of our liberty could soon be reversed.
The hint is already there with the government using forceful language on potentially mandating the COVID Pass should "certain venues that operate large, crowded settings" not take sufficient measures to limit infection.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer believes the prime minister's acceleration into lifting restrictions as cases rise is a car crash waiting to happen, describing Mr Johnson's government as one which "wants to put the country in a car without a seatbelt, we need a safer way."
Mr Johnson hopes he can ride out this exit wave but it is a big gamble.
From next week, it will be left to each of us to manage this pandemic with no guarantee how that will turn out, beyond my safe prediction that we're heading for a very bumpy summer.