COVID-19: Why we can't afford to get ahead of ourselves despite the success of the vaccine rollout
The virus has caught us off-guard before and we must stay grounded if we are to defeat it, writes Sky's Ashish Joshi.
Saturday 6 February 2021 13:51, UK
The mood is changing. It's lifting. The vaccine rollout is one part, one of the most important parts, of the government's pandemic response and it is working.
Almost 11 million people have now received the first dose of a vaccine. The government has so much confidence in its immunisation programme that it has added another target group to its list.
It says all over-50s are to be offered their first dose by the end of May.
According to Sky's own analysis, the government could actually meet this by mid-March, a comfortable six weeks or so before its own self-imposed deadline.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock says he's allowing for disruption to vaccines supplies. This confidence and concern is shared by vaccinators across the country.
There's nothing to stop people being vaccinated except a shortage of the vaccine itself. Worries about variants have been addressed, too - researchers have said the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine remains effective against the Kent variant of the virus.
We do not have the data for the vaccine's efficacy against the South Africa variant, but optimism is high that it will be equally effective. Scientists have been working with the probability of emerging variants from the very start.
The science to modify existing vaccines against evolving threats is good. Look at the success of flu vaccines.
And's this positivity around vaccines that has allowed the government to say local elections will go ahead in May.
The polls will not look quite the same as they did the last time. Voters will have to bring their own pens for a start.
But the government must be hoping for a vaccine bounce at the polls - they will believe that voters will have been impressed by the government's vaccination programme.
Critics will urge more scrutiny of Boris Johnson's handling of the pandemic.
The government's optimism is long overdue. But a warning about the vaccine alone being a silver bullet has been sounded.
Minutes from a SAGE meeting on 13 January stressed the vaccine was a valuable tool, but it could not end the pandemic on its own.
It stressed NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions, things like social distancing and lockdowns) must remain in order to provide an "escape strategy".
Some public health experts like Professor Devi Sridhar say lockdowns cannot be successfully eased until we have good virus surveillance in place.
The test and trace arm of the government's pandemic response has not been nearly as effective as its vaccine programme.
There is light at the end of the tunnel, but - as we have learned to our cost - this virus can rebound with deadly consequences.
Every hopeful step we take must be tempered with the experience of painful lessons learned.