Defence review envisages a world with old alliances weakened the UK left alone in cyber and space
Sky's Alistair Bunkall says most defence reviews leave the military in a worse state, however this one promises to be different.
Monday 22 March 2021 08:00, UK
The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy, long-awaited, sets out Britain's ambitions as a post-Brexit nation and its strategy to face the threats and challenges the coming decade will bring.
The greatest of those challenges is how Britain positions itself between the competing superpowers of Russia, the United States, and China.
The latter will soon be the world's richest economy. The continued rise of China is not in doubt and there is nothing the UK could do to stop it, even if it wanted to.
So how does the UK take a principled and tough moral stance against the erosion of democratic freedoms in Hong Kong, or the mistreatment of Uighurs in Xinxiang, but at the same time take advantage of the inevitable trade and economic benefits China will present, or successfully engage with Beijing on climate change?
By trying to tread a fine line, the UK government risks alienating its own hawkish backbenchers and appearing indecisive and weak to Beijing.
There is no dramatic revision of Britain's allies and foes - the United States remains the UK's closest ally and NATO will continue to be the preeminent security alliance against enemy number one: Russia.
But this review envisages a world where the multilateral alliances of recent history are weakened or less effective. It examines and prepares for a world where Britain might need to operate alone and in multiple domains like space and cyber.
It acknowledges the need for a properly-funded aid budget and the positive impact that can have: although no date has been put on the budget being restored to 0.7% of GDP, Downing Street appears to have accepted a cut was wrong.
The review is the opening act of a two part-play; it is the strategic bedrock on which tough decisions must be made regarding the British Armed Forces. Next week, the defence secretary and senior service chiefs will set out how the military will adapt to challenges and threats that have been identified.
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The prime minister has given the Ministry of Defence (MoD) budget a £16.5bn boost - to say it must be spent wisely and right is a gross under-statement.
After years of scandalous financial mismanagement, you could hardly blame Boris Johnson if he felt there were more deserving recipients of that money, particularly post-pandemic.
It is to Ben Wallace's credit that he argued for, and won, this spending settlement.
I have covered multiple security reviews in my time and after the initial fanfare, most only have the dismal legacy of leaving the military in a worse state than before: depleted, demoralised and debt-ridden.
This review genuinely promises something different: it needed to be radical, it needed to be ambitious, it was never going to be perfect.
It is too soon though, to judge it properly.