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Analysis

Defence review envisages a world with old alliances weakened the UK left alone in cyber and space

Sky's Alistair Bunkall says most defence reviews leave the military in a worse state, however this one promises to be different.

Hundreds of British paratroopers have jumped into Ukraine, alongside soldiers from the Army鈥檚 elite Pathfinder unit, for an exercise close to the border with Crimea. Supplied by Ministry of Defence
Image: British paratroopers pictured over Ukraine for an exercise close to the Crimean border. Pic: MOD
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The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy, long-awaited, sets out Britain's ambitions as a post-Brexit nation and its strategy to face the threats and challenges the coming decade will bring.

The greatest of those challenges is how Britain positions itself between the competing superpowers of Russia, the United States, and China.

The latter will soon be the world's richest economy. The continued rise of China is not in doubt and there is nothing the UK could do to stop it, even if it wanted to.

Hundreds of British paratroopers have jumped into Ukraine, alongside soldiers from the Army鈥檚 elite Pathfinder unit, for an exercise close to the border with Crimea. Supplied by Ministry of Defence
Image: NATO will continue to be the preeminent security alliance against enemy number one:聽Russia. Pic: MOD

So how does the UK take a principled and tough moral stance against the erosion of democratic freedoms in Hong Kong, or the mistreatment of Uighurs in Xinxiang, but at the same time take advantage of the inevitable trade and economic benefits China will present, or successfully engage with Beijing on climate change?

By trying to tread a fine line, the UK government risks alienating its own hawkish backbenchers and appearing indecisive and weak to Beijing.

There is no dramatic revision of Britain's allies and foes - the United States remains the UK's closest ally and NATO will continue to be the preeminent security alliance against enemy number one: Russia.

But this review envisages a world where the multilateral alliances of recent history are weakened or less effective. It examines and prepares for a world where Britain might need to operate alone and in multiple domains like space and cyber.

The HMS Queen Elizabeth is currently visiting western Scotland for the first time
Image: The defence secretary and senior service chiefs will set out how the military will adapt to future challenges and threats

It acknowledges the need for a properly-funded aid budget and the positive impact that can have: although no date has been put on the budget being restored to 0.7% of GDP, Downing Street appears to have accepted a cut was wrong.

The review is the opening act of a two part-play; it is the strategic bedrock on which tough decisions must be made regarding the British Armed Forces. Next week, the defence secretary and senior service chiefs will set out how the military will adapt to challenges and threats that have been identified.

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The prime minister has given the Ministry of Defence (MoD) budget a £16.5bn boost - to say it must be spent wisely and right is a gross under-statement.

After years of scandalous financial mismanagement, you could hardly blame Boris Johnson if he felt there were more deserving recipients of that money, particularly post-pandemic.

Two RAF Typhoons perform a flypast over The Titanic slipway in Belfast, to thank Second World War Veterans and to mark the 75th anniversary of VE Day. PA Photo. Picture date: Friday May 8, 2020. See PA story MEMORIAL VE. Photo credit should read: Niall Carson/PA Wire
Image: The review envisages a world where the multilateral alliances of recent history are weakened or less effective

It is to Ben Wallace's credit that he argued for, and won, this spending settlement.

I have covered multiple security reviews in my time and after the initial fanfare, most only have the dismal legacy of leaving the military in a worse state than before: depleted, demoralised and debt-ridden.

This review genuinely promises something different: it needed to be radical, it needed to be ambitious, it was never going to be perfect.

It is too soon though, to judge it properly.