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Analysis

Election: Will the country go to the polls before Christmas or not?

What happened in parliament? How did the PM respond? Will opposition parties continue to vote against an election?

UK ballot box
Image: UK ballot box
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Boris Johnson wants a general election before Christmas but has, so far, had his demand turned down by opposition parties.

So, will the UK be heading to the polls in the next few weeks? Or will the ballot boxes be left unused until the New Year?

WHAT HAPPENED IN PARLIAMENT TONIGHT?

has seen his third attempt to take the UK to the polls defeated in the House of Commons.

MPs voted by 299 to 70 on Monday night in favour of the prime minister's demand for an election on 12 December.

But this was below the threshold of 434 votes (two-thirds of all 650 MPs) he needed, under legislation known as the 2011 Fixed-term Parliaments Act (FTPA), to trigger an early poll.

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Moment government lost third early election vote

SO, THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE AN ELECTION BEFORE CHRISTMAS?

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Well, actually, it's still a very real prospect.

Immediately after he saw his third attempt to force an early election fail, the PM revealed he will present legislation to parliament tomorrow in a new attempt to get MPs to back a 12 December election.

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By tabling a short bill to amend the FTPA, the PM will now only need a simple majority of MPs to support an election, rather than the requirement to reach the 434-vote threshold.

The government wants their bill to be approved by the Commons in a single day.

WILL OPPOSITION PARTIES CONTINUE TO VOTE AGAINST AN ELECTION?

Not necessarily.

They may have resisted an early election up until now, but at the weekend the SNP and Liberal Democrats unveiled a joint proposal for an election on 9 December.

Their plan - which has now been adopted by the PM - was also to amend the FTPA with a simple bill.

The two parties swung in favour of a pre-Christmas election after the PM made his reluctant request to the EU for a three-month Brexit delay.

This moved the date of the UK's scheduled departure from 31 October to 31 January 2020, therefore removing the immediate possibility of a no-deal Brexit this month.

The SNP and Lib Dems also argued there wasn't a majority of MPs in favour of their preferred solution to the Brexit deadlock - a second EU referendum - under the current make-up of parliament, so there should be an election instead.

It has also been suggested the SNP want an election before the start of their former leader Alex Salmond's rape trial next year.

Jo Swinson Pic: UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor
Image: Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson proposed a 9 December election Pic: UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor

SO, THE UK IS HEADING TO THE POLLS ON 12 DECEMBER AFTER ALL?

The SNP suggested they will support the PM's fresh bid for a 12 December election, but only if there is an "absolute cast-iron assurance" he won't try and get his Brexit deal through parliament before that poll.

But the Lib Dems appear to be sticking to their demand for a 9 December election, as they do not trust the PM not to try and bring his Brexit deal back to the Commons before the dissolution of parliament before an election.

Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson told Sky News a 9 December poll would mean "there wouldn't be any time for the government to try to force through their Brexit deal bill", while a 12 December poll could - just - allow such a possibility.

Labour said they will "scrutinise" the PM's election bill, suggesting they might also get behind an early election.

But Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn wants a "clear, definitive decision" that a no-deal Brexit is "absolutely off the table".

He has also expressed concerns about a December election impacting on people's Christmas preparations, the dark evenings of a winter poll, and whether students will have already finished their term and gone home by 12 December.

Meanwhile, a number of Labour MPs are not in favour of an election and believe the party should work to secure a second EU referendum first.

But, even if the government doesn't get the support of all opposition parties, the PM could still possibly get his 12 December election if he convinces only one of the SNP or Lib Dems to back his bill.

There's even the possibility he might negotiate on the date of an election to win over the Lib Dems and Labour.

Whatever happens, it seems the UK is the closest it's been to a pre-Christmas election being approved by MPs.

Jeremy Corbyn Pic: UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor
Image: Jeremy Corbyn will 'scrutinise' the PM's plan Pic: UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor

AND WHAT HAPPENED TO THE PM'S BREXIT DEAL?

Leader of the House of Commons, Jacob Rees-Mogg, told MPs the Withdrawal Agreement Bill - needed to implement the PM's Brexit deal - will not be brought back, as he made an attempt to win over opposition parties to support going to the polls.

This means the PM will fight an election by telling the public a vote for the Conservatives is a vote to leave the EU as soon as possible on the terms of his deal.

As he told the Commons on Monday night: "It's time for the voters to have a chance to pronounce on that deal and to replace this dysfunctional parliament with a new parliament that can get Brexit done so the country can move on."

AND THE UK WILL LEAVE THE EU ON… ?

The PM has formally accepted a three-month extension to the Article 50 negotiating period to 31 January, therefore moving the Brexit deadline into next year.

But, the date of the UK's departure from the EU - or the very question of whether it leaves the bloc at all - now seems highly likely to be decided by result of an election.