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The Ethiopian prime minister, Abiy Ahmed has used Twitter to announce that Ethiopian government forces have begun their final approach on the Tigrayan capital Mekelle.

The statement was not unexpected.

Earlier this week, Mr Abiy offered the leaders of Tigray State, the TPLF, the opportunity to "surrender peacefully" but they were never going to accept such an arrangement.

Instead, Ethiopia embarks on a path that could result in intensive warfare in a densely populated city of at least 500,000.

The prime minister has been consistent in his intention to remove the TPLF by force since the conflict began three weeks ago and has shrugged off all attempts by international actors to bring the sides together for talks.

The African Union, which has its headquarters in Ethiopia, appointed three people to act as peace envoys but Mr Abiy, who won last year's Nobel Peace Prize for ending a two-decade standoff with Eritrea, said he will not let the envoys talk to the TPLF until they are defeated - or they give up.

A final battle for the regional capital now seems inevitable although it was been difficult for outside observers to assess which side has the upper hand the ground.

72-hour ultimatum for rebel leaders to lay down their arms expires

Both Mr Abiy and the TPLP have claimed major victories but a full communications blackout, imposed by the Ethiopian Government makes it difficult to sift reality from the psychological conflict.

Diplomatic and military sources have told Sky News that a clear and decisive military solution to this conflict is unlikely.

Tigrayan forces, who did much of the fighting in Ethiopia's long war with Eritrea, have large stocks of military hardware and number up to 250,000 men.

Sources say the TPLP has mobilised thousands of people in Mekelle, who are now digging trenches and arming themselves with automatic weapons.

Ethiopia's National Defence Force (ENDF) has around 140,000 active personnel but recent reports suggest the prime minister has become increasingly reliant on state militia from Tigray's southern neighbour Amhara.

If correct, it will raise the risk of ethnic-based violence.

"This is not just a conflict involving regular forces. There are widespread reports of ethnic militias roaming around Tigray and that risks considerable bloodshed in this conflict," says the deputy director of the Africa Program at International Crisis Group, Dino Mahtani.

Clearly, the risk of mass civilian casualties is increasing, despite Mr Abiy's pledge to take, "great care" to protect them.

Ethiopia's track record during this conflict has already caused concern.

Under basic UN principles, his administration is supposed to allow humanitarian organisations like the World Food Programme (WFP) access to all areas of the country, regardless of who controls the territory.

However, the WFP has been prevented from accessing its own food stores in TPLF-controlled Mekelle for urgent distributions.

"In a time of war there are no guarantees that Abiy's pledge on civilians will be effective.

"What happens if the TPLF digs in to make a stand in the Tigrayan capital Mekelle?

"Civilians could get caught in the crossfire but if they flee, we are then also looking at more mass displacement. The scenarios are grim," says Dino Mahtani.