General Election 2019: The five paths to power
Monday 4 November 2019 10:48, UK
For the third time in just over four-and-a-half years, the people of the UK will vote at a general election - and they will determine not only which party gets to govern, but also the winner in the bitter battle between Leave and Remain.
Westminster has been paralysed by the 2016 referendum, with Brexit splintering decades-old party allegiances.
But those hoping for an end to instability and minority government may be disappointed.
The path to power for both Labour and the Conservatives has become far more complicated and the route to a majority is hard to see; the resurgence of the Liberal Democrats, the return of Nigel Farage with his new Brexit Party, and an ever-growing cohort of independent MPs at odds with their former parties all mean voters have alternative options on every side of the Brexit divide.
There are five paths to power that will determine where this election will be won or lost. These paths interconnect; a party that succeeds in navigating one may still fail because of problems encountered in another.
Traditional marginal seats feature along these routes, but what makes this election so unpredictable is that many "target" constituencies would normally be regarded as safe.
These are volatile times in politics - expect some shocks on results night.
Path one: The Brexit battleground
The Johnson team strategy, like Theresa May's in 2017, will focus on Leave constituencies in England and Wales.
Out of those, 62 are marginal seats that Mrs May called "left behind" towns. Labour is defending in just over half and many saw large swings to the Tories in 2017.
Sky News' election analyst Professor Will Jennings says the shift towards the Conservatives in former industrial towns is partly down to demographics: "These towns have older, more socially conservative electorates who have stronger feelings of national identity."
Boris Johnson began wooing these towns the day he became prime minister. It is no accident that Bolton, Dudley, Blackpool and Ashfield were among the 50 places promised money to reinvigorate their high streets.
If Mr Johnson took all these Brexit town targets he could have a majority in the region of 20 seats - but there are obstacles to overcome.
In 2017, the Conservatives benefited from the absence of UKIP candidates in many of these constituencies, such as Bishop Auckland where UKIP won 18% of the vote in 2015.
This time, the Brexit Party could be on the ballot paper and hoping to attract Leave-supporting Labour voters who are still reluctant to vote Conservative.
It could cause an even bigger problem in seats the Tories did win in 2017, like Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland and Mansfield. The presence of the Brexit Party could help Labour regain them.
Another complication for both the Conservatives and Labour is that appealing to these Leave-voting constituencies could cost them votes elsewhere, particularly in Scotland or the south of England.
Prof Jennings believes the Conservative strategy is a gamble: "Focusing on winning over Leave voters - many of whom opted for the Brexit Party at May's European elections - narrows the party's appeal elsewhere, particularly among younger professionals, many of whom favour Remain."
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has a similarly difficult balance to strike.
In 2017 he persuaded voters on both sides of the Brexit divide that he was their man. Given the Liberal Democrat resurgence and Labour's confused Brexit policy, he has a tough task repeating that in 2019.
Path two: The Remain alliance
Both the European elections and the Brecon by-election breathed life back into the Liberal Democrats and suggested that if Remainers organise they could cost the Conservatives seats in the south of England and beyond.
In Brecon, the Greens and Plaid Cymru stood aside for the Lib Dems as the party most likely to defeat the incumbent Conservative. Following that success, it's understood they have drawn up a list of 100 seats to target at a general election, mainly in the North West, Yorkshire, the South East, South West and Wales.
They believe there are enough Remain votes for them to win in constituencies that voted as much as 60% Leave, such as Devon North and Torbay, especially if they have a winning history there.
Working as a Remain alliance means they also are more likely to succeed with their so-called "decapitation" strategy, targeting high-profile Brexiters like Steve Baker who represent constituencies that backed Remain.
A strong Remain alliance would also cause problems for Mr Corbyn.
"Labour faces the threat of a reinvigorated Liberal Democrats - who have pitched themselves as pro-EU, a position that should work well in cities, university towns and other places that voted Remain in the referendum and Labour in 2017," says Prof Jennings.
The new Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson has indicated she will challenge Labour in areas with Lib Dem history, like Leeds North West and Nick Clegg's former seat of Sheffield Hallam. Many of these seats have a large student vote and were Labour gains in 2017.
All but a handful of constituencies in England and Wales were won by Labour or the Conservatives in 2017, so any seat won by another party reduces their chances of reaching a Commons' majority.
The strategy of the Lib Dems and the smaller Remain parties is to win enough seats to hold the balance of power in another hung parliament.
Path three: The fight for Scotland
Success in Scotland is critical to the prospects of both main parties.
Labour have not formed a government with less than 40 seats in Scotland since 1955 - and they currently have only seven seats there, their smallest number since 1931.
Labour's path to power requires them to take seats directly off the SNP in working-class areas of Scotland, like Glasgow where all the seven seats are marginal and only one is held by Labour.
These places turned their back on Labour in 2015 and Mr Corbyn has shown no sign of winning them back.
The other question in Scotland at this election will be whether the issue of independence is as salient for some voters as it was in 2017. Then, reservations about the continuing ambitions of the SNP arguably delivered 13 seats for the Tories and four more for the Lib Dems.
The Tories have a difficult task trying to retain constituencies recently captured from the SNP, like Gordon and Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine. These areas rejected independence but supported Remain in the EU referendum.
At the last election, the results in Scotland suggested tactical voting between the Lib Dems and the Tories to defeat the SNP. This is less likely to happen this time.
Losing any of its 13 seats makes the Tory task in the rest of the UK that much tougher.
It is worth noting that, with the exception of 2015, the Conservative Party hasn't formed a majority government without winning at least 10 seats in Scotland.
Recent polling suggests both Labour and the Conservatives will struggle. Any seat gained by the SNP increases their chance of holding the balance of power at Westminster and frustrating the ambitions of the two main parties.
Path four: The defected and the deselected
Another roadblock to a Conservative or Labour majority could be the number of current MPs standing against their previous party.
Brexit has shattered party loyalties and around 25 MPs who once represented Labour or Conservative sit as independents. Half of them had the whip removed after voting against the government, while others defected.
Some of the defectors - like Chuka Umunna (Labour) and Sarah Wollaston (Conservative) - will stand at this election for the Liberal Democrats. Others will challenge their former parties as independent candidates.
At a time when the parliamentary maths is excruciatingly tight, such contests could prove crucial.
History shows that parties tend to triumph in these circumstances, but the past may prove no clear guide in these muddled times.
If the former Conservative MP Anna Soubry holds Broxtowe, former Labour MP Ian Austin wins in Dudley North and big names like Phillip Hammond and Dominic Grieve cause problems elsewhere, the path to Downing Street becomes more difficult for both Mr Johnson and Mr Corbyn.
We might also see a number of local constituency parties deselecting their current Westminster representative in favour of other candidates.
The 2017 election produced one of the most polarised parliaments in decades but arguably the new intake could be more divided and extreme in their views.
Not only will this make coalition difficult, it changes the nature of UK politics.
Path five: The Northern Ireland balance
The previous paths have shown how tough it will be for a single party to achieve a majority in the next Commons.
As in 2017, it could be that Northern Ireland's 18 seats are once again pivotal to the eventual outcome. Last time these divided 10 for the Democratic Unionists, seven for Sinn Fein and one independent.
As Sinn Fein don't take their seats at Westminster, every constituency they win effectively reduces the number needed for a working majority.
Similarly, every seat the DUP wins strengthens the case for Leave and a Conservative government.
Only when the results come in will we know whether the UK finally has a majority government and a resolution to the issue of Brexit. The path to both is unclear.
It is entirely possible, given the crowded paying field, for the result to be a hung parliament once again.
And, it is worth remembering, as Theresa May discovered in 2017, voters are as unpredictable as politicians.
This may be the Brexit election, but how people vote may well be decided by other issues too.