General Election 2019: Why Great Grimsby may slip from Labour's grip
Sky News takes a closer look at Great Grimsby, which may be shifting towards the Conservatives after 74 years under Labour.
Monday 18 November 2019 09:16, UK
Grimsby is all about fish, and they use every part of it.
Steve Moore's factory turns cod skin and other fish by-products into dog treats which he is turning into a thriving business.
He's looking at new markets in Canada, America and China, and he is Brexit through and through.
He said: "Great Britain was great and can be great again. Let's get on with it."
The Grimsby fish industry has had a turbulent relationship with the EU, whose quotas and regulations it blames for many of its problems.
And so Brexit is testing traditional political loyalties like seldom before.
Lifelong Labour voters like 82-year-old former union convenor, Dave Pearce, who told me he is going to do something he never, ever thought he would do - vote Tory.
He looked distraught as he said it.
This election will not be an easy one for voters.
Why Great Grimsby matters
Great Grimsby is one of the 62 Labour/Conservative Brexit marginal towns in England and Wales.
It had the 10th highest leave vote (71.4%) of any UK constituency in the EU referendum and the Conservatives gained ground there at the 2017 election.
Its MP, Melanie Onn, is one of 19 Labour MPs to vote for Boris Johnson's Brexit deal and she is defending the seat.
However she is widely predicted to lose, which would be a big shift considering Great Grimsby has been Labour since 1945.
Voter profile
Great Grimsby is one of the most deprived and least educated constituencies in the UK. Just 14.5% of adults who live there are graduates - the 17th lowest of any constituency.
It ranks as the 117th most deprived constituency and around 47% of adults are under the age of 45, making it younger than average. Earnings are down 7.7 points since 2010 - which is slightly more than average.
Sky News's election analysts Professor Michael Thrasher and Professor Will Jennings have selected six demographic measures to profile constituencies at this election.
These measures have been chosen for their strong relationship with party support and give a good indication of the potential appeal of parties in each seat.
Terms explained
Brexit: This shows the % which voted leave.
Age: Labour and the Lib Dems vote share tends to be higher in younger areas, with the Conservatives making gains in seats where the electorate is older.
Education: Since 2005, the Conservatives have done worse in graduate areas, and Labour has made progress.
Ethnic minorities: Labour tends to do better in seats with a higher proportion of ethnic minority communities. The Conservatives tend to do worse.
Earnings: This shows the percentage change in average earnings between 2010 and 2018, adjusted for inflation. In 2017, the Conservative vote showed slight increases in constituencies where earnings had increased. Labour tended to improve where earnings have declined.
Deprivation: Our Sky Deprivation index ranks the social and economic health of particular areas, using data on employment, qualifications, poor health and occupancy. The higher the number the more deprived the constituency, with Labour and the SNP outperforming these areas. The Conservative and the Lib Dems vote share is higher in places that are less deprived.