General Election 2019: Why Peterborough is a key electoral battleground
Sky News takes a closer look at Peterborough, where the Brexit Party could affect a close battle between Labour and the Tories.
Tuesday 12 November 2019 13:18, UK
With precision timing, the Path to Power bus pitched up in Peterborough - just the sort of seat over which the Conservatives and the Brexit Party could well do battle.
It is held by Labour but only just and the Brexit Party did very well in a recent by-election. But it is full of conflicted voters.
Natasha Rose, managing director of a large building supplies company, is a Remainer, but she also feels all the uncertainty over Brexit is causing damage to her business and so is minded to vote Tory simply to "get on with Brexit".
She thinks Labour means more uncertainty. But in this city of diversity and a strong British Muslim community we found support for Jeremy Corbyn's party.
Seriously concerned by the Islamophobia allegations surrounding the Tories, Mohammed Saeed says many in his community will vote Labour.
He also wants to see better youth and education services. The big unknown is to what extent the Brexit Party will influence things here. The certainty is that one way or another, they will.
Why Peterborough matters
This cathedral city has been the centre of a fight between Labour and the Conservatives on the Brexit battleground.
It is an economically successful city and has a history as a key marginal, and apart from 2005 and 2017, it has voted for the party which won power nationally since the 1970s.
Peterborough voted 61% Leave in the EU referendum and there was a significant vote for the Brexit Party in the recent by-election after the Labour MP who won the seat in 2017 - Fiona Onasanya - was convicted of a driving offence. Labour's Lisa Forbes has served as the Peterborough MP since the 2019 by-election.
Voter profile
Around 70,500 people are eligible to vote in Peterborough and it is younger and more diverse than many Brexit-voting towns.
Around 22% of the adult population is from an ethnic minority, making it the 112th most ethnically diverse constituency in the UK. It is also the 141st youngest constituency, with 51.3% of adults under the age of 45.
However, the constituency is well below average for the number of graduates who live there - just 17.7% of adults.
Earnings are down 7.5 points since 2010, which is relatively average. But it is one of the more deprived constituencies, sitting at 130 out of 650 on the Sky Deprivation Index.
Sky News' election analysts Professor Michael Thrasher and Professor Will Jennings have selected six demographic measures to profile constituencies at this election. These measures have been chosen for their strong relationship with party support and give a good indication of the potential appeal of parties in each seat.
Terms explained
Brexit: This shows the % that voted Leave.
Age: Labour and the Lib Dems' vote share tends to be higher in younger areas, with the Conservatives making gains in seats where the electorate is older.
Education: Since 2005, the Conservatives have done worse in graduate areas, and Labour has made progress.
Ethnic minorities: Labour tends to do better in seats with a higher proportion of ethnic minority communities. The Conservatives tend to do worse.
Earnings: This shows the percentage change in average earnings between 2010 and 2018, adjusted for inflation. In 2017, the Conservative vote showed slight increases in constituencies where earnings had increased. Labour tended to improve where earnings have declined.
Deprivation: Our Sky Deprivation index ranks the social and economic health of particular areas, using data on employment, qualifications, poor health and occupancy. The higher the number the more deprived the constituency, with Labour and the SNP outperforming these areas. The Conservative and the Lib Dem vote share is higher in places that are less deprived.