Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? The most likely scenarios
Sky's polling expert Harry Carr explains the potential outcomes of the US election and how likely they are to happen.
Wednesday 9 November 2016 01:05, UK
With the US presidential election nearly upon us, how is the US likely to vote?
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump each need 270 .
:: A narrow Clinton victory
Most likely - as she retains a 2-3% polling lead.
In the Midwest, she is likely to take Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, plus Virginia and Colorado, which have lots of college-educated voters.
She is also likely to take a few of the close-call states, such as New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida and Nevada.
Latinos have been turning out in record numbers in early voting, indicating an advantage for Mrs Clinton in the likes of Nevada and Florida in particular.
So long as she wins one of them she edges over the line.
Win all of them, and she may almost reach the 332 electoral votes won by Barack Obama in 2012.
:: A Clinton landslide
Were she to take the whole lot, it would be a very different scenario.
While the large white working-class populations have put Ohio and Iowa in Mr Trump's column, they could yet swing back.
Traditional Republican strongholds such as Arizona and Georgia are also in doubt for the tycoon.
We could then be heading towards something like Mr Obama's 365 electoral votes in 2008, or even Bill Clinton's 379 in 1996.
:: A narrow Trump victory
But if Mrs Clinton falls short in key swing states, then Mr Trump, who is competitive in them all, does have a path to victory.
It's even possible that he could win the election while losing the popular vote - as George W Bush did in 2000.
:: A Trump landslide
If working-class white voters turn out in unprecedented numbers - as happened with Brexit - it could upset the polls in the Midwest.
And if Mr Trump can add those states to those in which he is already competitive, it is possible he could win well.
:: A strange map
Could there be a genuine split from the past?
It's possible - if unlikely - that Mr Trump could win the traditional Democratic states with a large white population in the north, while Mrs Clinton sweeps southern states with a high proportion of college-educated voters and ethnic minorities.
Thus Georgia could vote Democrat for the first time since 1992, at the same time as Minnesota votes Republican for the first time since 1972.
The feasibility of this scenario - even at a stretch - is an indication of how American politics has changed.
:: Watch every twist and turn of the US election results live on Sky News.
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