Is Chancellor Philip Hammond heading for the sack?
Theresa May's tight balancing act in the Cabinet means two figures that have faced calls for their sacking are likely to cling on.
Monday 16 October 2017 07:31, UK
When compared with political nicknames such as Iron Lady, Tarzan or Grand Old Man, the sobriquet of Spreadsheet Phil doesn't shine.
But it does at least ring true about the incumbent Chancellor, Philip Hammond: patrician, restrained, even dour.
He makes an unlikely lightning rod for fury. Yet this week barely a day has passed without Hammond attracting the ire of his colleagues.
He has become the de facto ringmaster of the Tory Remainers. He is privately and publicly scornful of his Brexiteer colleagues.
He considers them to be out of touch with economic and commercial reality. He has become the go-to voice for the City and big business in the Cabinet, who argue for as little change as possible.
Hence this week his on tasking the civil service to prepare for a no-deal scenario with Brussels. He said it would be wrong to do so "just to make some demonstration point".
This enraged the Brexiteers. They suspect foul play, that he's trying to frustrate Brexit.
Consequently one of Hammond's predecessors, Nigel Lawson, told me on Thursday that he was "damaging the country" and that Theresa May should sack him. Many MPs agreed.
And today, The Sunday Telegraph's front page told us that the DUP are similarly incensed. The paper says senior DUP parliamentary sources have said they are "extremely concerned about Philip Hammond's behaviour" and that he is "trying to frustrate the Brexit process".
The article claims the DUP source has said Theresa May must sack him if he doesn't change his tune. Given Mrs May is Prime Minister only because of their 10 seats, this is no insignificant threat.
But is it true? I have my doubts. For a start, although the DUP are arch-Brexiteers, they are most certainly not "no-dealers".
They know more than anyone how damaging a hard border would be for Northern Ireland. That is what would return if Britain cannot reach an accommodation with the EU.
Indeed, the DUP told Sky's David Blevins on Sunday morning that they do not recognise the comments attributed to them by the Telegraph.
There is mischief afoot. And I wonder whether some of the more extreme stories being pumped into the press this week about Hammond might not have the fingerprints of team Boris Johnson.
Let's not forget, only a week ago it was his future, not the Chancellor's, which was on everyone's lips.
And maybe that's not surprising, for they have each, in their own way, come to epitomise one wing of their party: the hard Remainers and hard Leavers respectively. Consequently, each side is calling for the other's captain to get the sack.
Precisely for this reason, I suspect in the end, May will choose not to move either.
Reshuffling either a chancellor or foreign secretary is a big step even for a powerful PM. For a weak one, in a situation where both would probably choose to return to the backbenches rather than be moved, it could be lethal. Especially given the wider Brexit politics.
::
::
Moving one but not the other would disrupt the extremely delicate equilibrium between the factions in the Tory Europe civil war. And moving both? Maybe even worse - it might actually be the one thing to bring them together.
Much better to leave them and create space for new blood lower down the cabinet pecking order.
After all, in some ways, who is the person who suffers most from a wounded chancellor and foreign secretary? A wounded prime minister, worried for her job.