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Explainer

Is famine about to be declared throughout Gaza?

According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Initiative (IPC)'s latest report, North Gaza is already under famine conditions, with the rest of the territory risking the same fate by mid-July unless the situation changes dramatically.

Palestinian children wait to receive food cooked by a charity kitchen in Rafah. Pic: Reuters
Image: Palestinian children wait to receive food cooked by a charity in Rafah, southern Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Why you can trust Sky News

The international food security agency has warned Gaza's entire population faces famine by mid-July.

Aid agencies and world leaders have consistently warned of starvation in Gaza since war broke out on 7 October.

They say not enough aid is being allowed through the border, but Israel says it has tried to speed up checking processes - and bottlenecks are beyond its control.

Trucks carrying aid line up near the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip in Rafah.
Pic: Reuters
Image: Aid trucks line up at the Rafah border crossing. Pic: Reuters

What is famine?

Famine levels are assessed by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Initiative (IPC), which was set up by the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation in 2004.

According to its definition, famine is a "situation in which starvation and extremely critical levels of acute malnutrition are evident".

The IPC uses a one-to-five scale that ranges from 'minimal' to 'famine'.

More on Israel-hamas War

Gaza is currently in the fourth 'emergency' phase, but North Gaza is already in phase five.

For an area to be put into the fifth phase, the criteria says: "Even with any humanitarian assistance, at least one in five households have an extreme lack of food and other basic needs where starvation, death, and destitution are evident."

The UN's World Food Programme (WFP) also stipulates that 30% of children must be suffering from acute malnutrition and that two in every 10,000 people are dying from starvation, disease, or malnutrition.

Children queue for food in Gaza
Image: Children queue for food in Gaza. Pic: Sky News

How often are famines declared?

Currently there are no countries in an official state of famine, according to the criteria.

But WFP warns that 47 million people across 54 countries are experiencing "emergency" levels of hunger or worse - and risk being pushed into famine soon.

Most of these are in Africa, but hunger is expected to rise globally in the coming years.

Famine mostly occurs in places where humanitarian access is restricted.

Outside Gaza, Yemen and South Sudan are currently at great risk, with "conflict, insecurity and resulting displacement driving acute hunger to alarming levels".

Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and Somalia are also being closely monitored.

Palestinian toddler Leila Jeneid, who suffers from severe malnutrition, receives treatment at Kamal Adwan Hospital in Gaza.
Pic: Reuters
Image: A malnourished toddler at Kamal Adwan Hospital in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Palestinian woman Wafaa Tabasi holds her twin malnourished daughter Sameera, At al-Awda health centre in Rafah
Image: A Palestinian woman cares for her malnourished children at At al-Awda health centre in Rafah. Pic: Reuters

What are hunger levels like in Gaza?

The last IPC report, which covered up to 15 March, said that 1.1 million Gazans (half of the population) will face phase five famine by mid-July, unless the situation in the strip changes.

North Gaza already meets famine criteria - with 210,000 people there currently under the worst possible conditions.

The southern areas of Deir-al Balah, Khan Younis, and Rafah are in phase four - the second highest emergency level, but the report warned they are likely to reach phase five by July.

Overall, the IPC says all 2.2 million people in Gaza are experiencing 'crisis or worse' hunger levels.

It notes: "This is the highest share of people facing high levels of acute food insecurity the IPC has ever classified for any given area or country."

Yazan Al-Kafarneh, from the northern part of Gaza City, suffers from cerebral palsy due to an insufficient supply of oxygen at the time of his birth. He is currently receiving treatment at a private children's hospital in the city of Rafah, which specializes in providing care to children who suffer from malnutrition and a shortage of medication.
Pic: DPA/AP
Image: A malnourished hospital patient in Gaza. Pic: AP

"Virtually all" Palestinians in Gaza are skipping meals every day, it adds, with adults going hungry so children can eat.

At the time of the last report, people in the north were going "entire days and nights without eating at least 10 times in the last 30 days". In the south, this was the case across one in three households.

Only one in three of the water pipelines in Gaza is operating - and at reduced capacity.

The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) is the largest aid organisation in Gaza and is currently coordinating supplies through the Rafah and Kerem Shalom borders with Egypt and Israel respectively.

The IPC has described the situation in Gaza as "man-made starvation", with international leaders, including Rishi Sunak and Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron calling on Israel to open more checkpoints.

A group of justices at the International Criminal Court have declared that famine is "setting in", while top UN coordinator Martin Griffiths wrote recently on X: "We know that once a famine is declared, it is way too late. The international community should hang its head in shame for failing to stop it."

The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry says dozens have died of starvation, with "dozens more dying silently" elsewhere, unable to reach hospitals.

How does starvation affect the body?

Medics and scientists estimate that people can survive for around three weeks without food, at which point organs malfunction and the risk of infection soars.

Starvation occurs in three stages.

Firstly when just one meal is skipped, our bodies turn to glycogen, a starchy substance from the liver, to get their energy.

Then after a more prolonged period of fasting, the body uses stored fats, before the final stage, when it is only left with bones and muscles to get the energy to survive.

Once energy is used from stored fats and muscles, people lose weight dramatically and begin to look gaunt.

Starvation causes stomachs to bloat, which can cause nausea and vomiting.

It also affects hormone systems, which means the body is no longer able to regulate itself properly.

Eventually, if infection doesn鈥檛 occur, the heart will stop functioning.

What has Israel said?

Israel has been criticised for not allowing enough aid into Gaza, particularly after 100 people were killed scrambling to get food from an aid delivery earlier this year, and foreign nationals were killed as they guided aid vehicles through the strip.

The UK has warned that its patience over the humanitarian situation in Gaza is "running thin".

The US, in coalition with Jordan and others, has begun airdropping its own aid, while South Africa is using mechanisms at the International Court of Justice to get it to intervene.

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Aid airdropped into Gaza

The ICJ has issued a legally binding order that Israel allows more aid in and has accused it of using starvation as a weapon of war.

Israel says it is not blocking aid into Gaza and vehemently denies accusations of genocide by the ICJ.

It says it has to inspect every aid delivery that enters via its border or Egypt's to check it is not benefiting Hamas.

The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) has admitted responsibility for misidentifying the World Food Kitchen aid delivery, which was struck by accident, killing three Britons and several others.