Is this the end of the beginning for Brexit?
The endorsement of two documents will, probably, mark the "end of the beginning"聽of the long withdrawal process.
Sunday 25 November 2018 08:58, UK
Whether or not you see it as the beginning of an exciting new chapter for the UK, there's no question today's EU summit in Brussels is an historic moment.
The endorsement of two documents will, probably, mark the "end of the beginning" of the long process that is the United Kingdom's separation from the European Union.
Assuming everything goes to plan and the last minute knots put in the loose ends (Gibraltar, fishing etc) remain tied up, the deal which will formally remove the UK from the EU will pass its first hurdle this weekend.
Later this morning she and the leaders of the remaining 27 countries of the EU will gather for a specially convened Brexit summit at which they are expected to formally rubber stamp the Brexit deal.
Officials at the European Council, with negotiators from both sides, have been trying to find a form of words which works for both sides.
Assuming consensus is found, this weekend will be the culmination of more than 18 months of negotiations which began in March 2017, after Britain formally declared its intention to leave the EU by triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.
Since then, on an almost weekly basis, negotiating teams from the UK and the European Commission, on behalf of the EU member countries, have been locked in talks. They have been tense and, at times, seemingly irreconcilable.
Sunday's summit will see the agreement which the negotiators reached last week ratified by the European Council of EU leaders.
The UK Parliament will then have a so-called meaningful vote on the agreement in the coming weeks. Assuming that votes passes, the European Parliament will then vote on the agreement.
The first of the two documents - the Withdrawal Agreement - specifically deals with the divorce. .
The dense legal document covers three specific areas: Citizens Rights, the so-called financial settlement (the UK's financial commitments as a departing EU member) and the Irish Border.
The text includes the controversial backstop which is an insurance policy to ensure that there is no hard border on the island of Ireland in the event that no future free trade deal can be sought which itself removes the need for a border.
The backstop, which Theresa May says is unlikely ever to be used, would see the whole of the UK remain in a customs union with the EU plus Northern Ireland remain in elements of the EU's single market too. This would tie the UK to EU rules and financial commitments as well as prevent it from being able to sign its own independent trade deals.
. But it has since been the subject of intense last minute negotiations by UK and EU negotiators and now stands at 36 pages.
It is a 'Political Declaration' of a framework for the future relationship that both sides aspire to build once the UK has left the EU in March next year. It is not a legal text and is not binding.
It pledges to create the closest possible partnership between the UK and the EU. It talks of an "ambitious, broad, deep and flexible partnership across trade and economic cooperation, law enforcement and criminal justice, foreign policy, security and defence and wider areas of cooperation".
However critics say it carries no guarantees on what future relationship can be achieved and is light on detail, specifically over the type of solutions which could prevent a border on the island of Ireland.
It reads: "The parties recall their determination to replace the backstop solution on Northern Ireland by a subsequent agreement that establishes alternative arrangements for ensuring the absence of a hard border on the Island of Ireland on a permanent footing" but gives no detail on what the "alternative arrangements" are.
The document makes no mention of the Prime Minister's previous aspirations for "frictionless trade". Her Chequers proposal last July proposed frictionless trade with the EU but it was quickly rejected by the EU who won't allow it without a full commitment by the UK to freedom of movement of people as well as goods.
The document describes the UK developing its own "independent trade policy" but later pledges to "build and improve on the single customs territory provided for in the Withdrawal Agreement", a line which, on the face of it, is not compatible with an independent trade policy.
Assuming the European Council approves the agreement, the next stage is parliamentary approval in both the European Parliament and the UK Parliament.
If the agreement clears both those hurdles, it will pave the way for an orderly exit on 29 March 2019 and a two year transition period (extendable once for a yet-to-be-agreed period) during which the UK remains effectively an EU member but without a seat at the table.
After the orderly exit on 29 March, the trade negotiations can begin. They are likely to take at least several years and no one has been able to guarantee that they will succeed in delivering a UK/EU trade deal broad enough to remove the need for the controversial backstop.
If the Withdrawal Agreement is not agreed either in Brussels or in Westminster then the consequence would be a 'no-deal' Brexit. This means a cliff edge departure, no transition period, and no laws or arrangements to deal with any aspect of the intertwined EU/UK relationship from the status of citizens living in respective territories, transport and the trading of services and goods between the UK and EU which last year represented 44% of all UK exports.