Analysis: Trump has rolled the dice to gamble on a game-changing moment - but this could yet spiral
By Mark Stone, US correspondent, in Washington DC
Donald Trump has rolled the dice. He is gambling on being correct about two key variables.
First, he is banking on being right that the US military strikes have really "completely and totally obliterated" the Iranian nuclear sites, as he claimed.
US military officials have frequently said that destroying the whole nuclear apparatus would be very hard, and the more likely outcome of airstrikes would be to set the nuclear programme back.
The second gamble holds far more jeopardy. The president is betting that Iran will not have the capability, or the guts, to hit any of the many US bases and diplomatic missions in the region or to meaningfully disrupt international shipping.
His hope is that the moderates in the Iranian regime will now recognise their own strategic defeat and will adopt a position of dialogue and de-escalation.
President hopes to repeat first term success
The best-case scenario now would be a repeat of history, a repeat of a moment when Donald Trump, in his first term, got lucky.
In December 2019, he made a decisive decision to order the assassination of the then head of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani.
Trump opted for a seismic retaliation in response to Iranian attacks on Americans in the region.
In early January 2020, Iran's most senior military figure was killed in a drone strike in Baghdad.
At the time, the region braced, and many predicted, a huge Iranian counter-attack. But it didn't come. There were isolated attacks but nothing sustained.
Two weeks ago, Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff warned that an Israeli preemptive strike on Iran would prompt a massive Iranian retaliation. He predicted what he called a "mass casualty event" in Israel. That too has not materialised.
Two ways this could go
The US president is said to have been surprised and impressed by Israel's defensive capabilities but also its offensive operations in Iran.
He seems to be convinced enough that the Iranian response in the days ahead will be limp.
He cited the assassination of General Soleimani in his late-night address to the nation. He sees that as his success - a gamble that paid off.
If he is right again on both of his new gambles - that he has destroyed the nuclear facilities and that Iran does not hit back with any effectiveness 鈥� then, just maybe, this will be a game-changing moment.
But if Iran manages even to hit one US base and kill some Americans, then the whole thing will spiral.
Watch below: Stone explains the US strikes on Iran
Trump's domestic political gamble
Trump made one more gamble this weekend. He bet that his own base of supporters will be with him on this.
He is the president who campaigned on a pledge not to involve America in far-away wars, and yet he has just dramatically inserted himself into a new one.
He now needs to show them he is right - that this was a one-off game-changing strike of American might - strength to bring peace, he'd say.
In his short late-night address to the nation, he made a point of reminding America of Iran's malign behaviour over decades - their weapons killed and maimed many Americans, he told them.
It was notable too that he was flanked by his vice-president, secretary of state and defence secretary.
He doesn't want to own this gamble alone.