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May's net migration pledge isn't deliverable

Even if Theresa May used Brexit to pull up the drawbridge on all EU migration, she wouldn't hit her target, writes Beth Rigby.

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron and Home Secretary Theresa May (L) walk through Terminal 5 in 2010
Image: David Cameron's pledge was a millstone around Theresa May's neck as home secretary
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"(We) keep our ambition of delivering annual net migration in the tens of thousands, not the hundreds of thousands," said the Conservative manifesto in 2015.

David Cameron's 2010 pledge to cut immigration was repeated in the run-up to the general election five years later.

It was a millstone around Theresa May's neck as home secretary, a target imposed on her that she couldn't hit.

Now Prime Minister, Mrs May passed that millstone on to her successor Amber Rudd on Monday, .

Mrs May said: "I think it's important that we continue and we will continue to say that we do want to bring net migration down to sustainable levels. We believe that is in the tens of thousands."

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PM: We will stick to immigration target

What she didn't answer was when, and there's a simple reason for that: this is a policy that might appeal on the doorstep but - even with Brexit - isn't really deliverable.

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Just take the numbers: net migration - the difference between those entering and leaving Britain - is running at nearly 275,000 a year, with EU migrant making up 165,000 of that figure.

So even if Mrs May used Brexit to pull up the drawbridge on all EU migration, the moment Britain leaves the EU, she still wouldn't manage to hit her "tens of thousands" pledge.

But there is a much bigger issue than the economic cost of rapidly whittling back immigration.

The UK economy is running at near full employment. Across the country, hundreds of thousands of migrant workers do vital jobs, as care workers, brick layers, nurses, waiters, bus drivers, doctors.

Not only do these workers plug job vacancies, they also pay taxes into the exchequer which helps fund the NHS, social care, schools.

Home Office van
Image: The Tory pledge to cut net migration to tens of thousands may not be deliverable.

Politicians and businesses alike are deeply concerned about post-Brexit labour shortages.

Here's why: if migrant numbers fall by 91,000 a year, a "middle range" Brexit growth will be 3.4% lower in 2030 than it would have otherwise been, according to figures out late last year from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research.

If the Government cuts migrant numbers by 150,000, growth will be 5.4% lower; you can see why ministers have been busily reassuring businesses that they'll still be able to get the workers they need once Britain leaves the EU.

A policy where that doesn't stack up practically or economically and a target missed for six years in a row; you may think it's time to drop it, but Mrs May has decided that's simply too riAG百家乐在线官网.

This is a Prime Minister chasing a big majority and predicating that big majority in part - on bringing UKIP voters back into the Tory fold.

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How do migration figures stack up?

, at least half of the anti-immigration party's 3.9 million voters from 2015 could be heading back to Ms May.

She won't want to drop a policy so popular with Kippers - and the wider public - even if she has to fudge the delivery date.

She is leading on immigration and she wants to keep it that way. Beyond this election, No 10 knows it needs to move the immigration debate on from cutting numbers and towards "taking back control".

It is a millstone she could have dropped, she's chosen not to. That decision may serve her well on 8 June but imagine the disappointment her supporters will feel when Brexit doesn't deliver the radical cuts to migration they expected to see.