One of oldest laws of political life might be about to end
As long as Boris Johnson maintains his level of support, he is guaranteed a place in the last two.
Friday 14 June 2019 03:36, UK
One of the oldest laws of political life might be about to be consigned to history: that the favourite in a Tory leadership race never wins.
For after Thursday's first ballot, Boris Johnson is in better fettle than ever. He won 114 votes, more than expected, and 71 more than his closest rival, Jeremy Hunt.
If all he does in subsequent rounds is simply maintain that level of support and doesn't add a single extra vote, he is guaranteed a place in the last two and will be put before Conservative members.
The big danger for Mr Johnson was not meeting expectations: if he had scored in the sixties or seventies he would have lost much momentum; he might have seemed more vulnerable to challenge from other Brexiteers.
Instead, now it seems likely that he will be able to absorb many of the no-deal votes from the eliminated candidates, Andrea Leadsom and Esther McVey and perhaps, eventually, the better scoring Dominic Raab.
All eyes will be on what happens to their supporters and the supporters of those already eliminated. If Mr Raab drops out and he, Ms McVey and Mrs Leadsom eventually back Mr Johnson, he will, more or less, be the unalloyed Brexiteer candidate.
He will face a Remainer in the last two, exactly what he wants. He will be immune from challenge from the Brexiteer right. That will be his overriding objective now.
So while it is easier to see the Brexiteer block coalescing, the same cannot be said for Mr Johnson's opponents as the race for second place is much more open and fragmented.
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Mr Hunt's camp will be privately disappointed by his showing. He came second but by a smaller margin than anticipated.
He is, in effect, the continuity candidate from within the government. He should have been able to hoover up more of the loyalist payroll vote.
In contrast, Michael Gove actually held up well after a very difficult week.
Matt Hancock and Rory Stewart scraped through, although presumably by next week they will be toast.
But this fragmentation is part of the problem. If, as an MP, your only aim is to stop Mr Johnson becoming prime minister, as you survey this electoral landscape, it is not clear what you do.
Mr Gove is damaged. Mr Hunt seems stolid and uninspiring and tainted by his continuity status. Mr Hancock and Sajid Javid seem too far adrift, as is Mr Stewart whose position is so distant from the current Conservative centre as to make him unviable as a candidate.
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It's hard to imagine a rosier launching pad for Mr Johnson. If he is the overwhelming favourite of the Conservative parliamentary party, he will have legitimacy he may not have expected.
He will be able to tell the membership to learn lessons of the split in the Labour Party since the election of divisive Jeremy Corbyn to leadership. He will be able to say: "Do not make the same mistake as Labour. Do not cause internecine warfare by sending a leader to Westminster who isn't the pick of the MPs."
It will be a potent argument.
If we take anything from today it's that, barring catastrophic self-implosion (which with Mr Johnson cannot be discounted) he's very likely to be Britain's next prime minister.