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By Tomos Evans, Wales reporter

We鈥檙e less than a year out from the next Senedd election, when people in Wales will head to the polls.

Labour has been in power in Cardiff since the Senedd鈥檚 creation in 1999.

But the Labour Party on both ends of the M4 is acutely aware of the genuine prospect of a change in government in Wales, after a poll last month put Labour in third place.

Meanwhile, Nigel Farage kicked off Reform UK's plans to win the Senedd earlier this week in Port Talbot, where he pledged to try to reopen the blast furnaces there.

With all that in mind, Rachel Reeves is expected to pledge extra rail funding for Wales as part of her spending review this lunchtime.

The money 鈥� expected to be at least 拢445m 鈥� will go towards building new stations, upgrading lines and fixing level crossings.

Some of that money is expected to go directly to fund those projects, and some will go to the Welsh government.

It's hoped this will unlock economic potential, with rail projects in both the north and the south of the country.

Labour will argue the cash boost is as a result of the two governments, in Westminster and Cardiff, working together to deliver for Wales.

A Treasury source said Wales will "thrive" under the Labour Westminster government, and that the chancellor鈥檚 package "has the potential to be truly transformative".

But will the funding be enough?  

Opposition parties say it won't, and claim that Wales is owed more.

Plaid Cymru say the spending review will "impose real terms cuts to many important services".

Ben Lake, the party's Treasury spokesperson, added that the re-classification of a rail line between Oxford and Cambridge to an England-and-Wales project would mean the country "loses out on millions in investment".

The row over that project followed a similar debate over high-speed rail project HS2, linking London and Birmingham.

HS2 was classed as an England-and-Wales project by the Conservative government.

If a project is classed as England-only, Wales鈥檚 devolved government gets a population-based share of funding, as was the case in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

But England-and-Wales projects are considered to benefit both nations, so the Welsh government gets no extra cash from them.

The Welsh Conservatives have described the spending review as a "kick in the teeth to the people of Wales".

Their leader, Darren Millar, said the promised investment fell "well short of the 拢1bn plus in rail funding planned by the previous UK Conservative government".

The Welsh Liberal Democrats鈥� Westminster spokesperson, David Chadwick, said Wales had been given "the scraps".

He said the funding "falls far short of the billions owed to Wales over recent years" and called for the full devolution of rail to Wales.

This is one of the biggest moments in Britain's economic calendar - bigger, in some respects, than the annual budget.

Yet trying to get your head around the spending review - in particular this year's spending review - is a far more fraught exercise than with the budget.

So perhaps the best place to start when approaching the review is to take a deep breath and a step back. With that in mind, here are five things you really need to know about the 2025 spending review.

1. It's not about all spending

Around 59p in every pound of government spending (which amounts to 拢1.4trb this fiscal year) goes on things like welfare, pensions and debt interest - meaning it is largely out of the government's control. 

This kind of spending isn't being discussed by the government today - only departmental spending.

2. It's a 'zero-based' review. Apparently

In the next fiscal year, we have a headline figure for how much day-to-day spending to expect across government. What we don't have is that breakdown.

How much of the total will be health, education, defence and so on? That, in a sense, is the single biggest question the review will set out to answer.

A zero-based review starts from the position that the department will have to justify not just an annual increase (or decrease), but every single pound it spends.

That's tremendously ambitious. And typically zero-based reviews tend to throw out some dramatic changes.

Is that really what Whitehall will provide us with in this review? Almost certainly not.

3. It's the first multi-year review in ages

The last multi-year review happened in the midst of COVID and you have to look back to 2015 for the previous multi year review.

So the fact that this review will set spending totals not just for next fiscal year but for the next three years is no small deal.

4. It's not 'austerity'

The spending totals implied by this spending review are nothing like those implemented by the coalition government between 2010 and 2015.

Day-to-day spending dropped from 21.5% of GDP in 2009/10 to 15% of GDP in 2016/17. By contrast, the spending envelope for this review will see day-to-day spending increasing rather than decreasing in the coming years.

5. It's not a big splurge either

While the totals are indeed due to increase in the coming years, they are not due to increase by all that much.

In each year covered by the 2000 and 2002 comprehensive spending reviews under Gordon Brown, for instance, capital investment grew by 16.3% and 10.6% respectively.

This time around, it's due to increase by just 1.3%. Now, granted, that slightly understates it. Include 2025/26 (not part of this review but still a year of spending determined by this Labour government) and the annual average increase is 3.4%.

The Liberal Democrats say they have been "disappointed" with Labour's economic plans so far. 

Sarah Olney told Sky News that she would like to see a "real commitment from the government to invest in economic growth in our high streets and our small businesses".

The Lib Dem MP said this would "grow the economy and get Britain back on its feet".

Olney said she disagreed with the government's move to hike employer national insurance contributions (NICs) and would like to see more investment in the NHS. 

Asked how she would pay for this, she repeated the party's calls for a bespoke EU-UK customs union and said doing this could add 2.2% to GDP and claimed this would "result in an extra 25bn tax take".

Ministers have begun to arrive in Downing Street ahead of the chancellor's spending review this lunchtime. 

The cabinet meeting will see senior members of the government formally sign off on the plans, which will set departmental funding for the next few years.

Of course, the details of the spending review have already been finalised - with Home Secretary Yvette Cooper pushing negotiations to the wire on Monday, while Angela Rayner only agreed to Reeves' sums for her department on Sunday night.

This morning, ministers will therefore rubber stamp the plans before they all head over to the Commons for PMQs at 12 - and then, yes, the spending review.

Reform UK says it hopes the chancellor's spending review delivers "the opposite of what she's been doing" so far.

Zia Yusuf warned Labour's economic policies are an example of "what happens when people with no meaningful experience in the real world - not really understanding how the real world works - occupy the highest offices in the land".

The former chairman was asked what he would like to see in Rachel Reeves' review this lunchtime. 

In response, he told Sky News that Reeves' decision to hike employer national insurance contributions (NICs) has a "clear, direct" link to rising unemployment and a falling number of vacancies. 

He also called for net-zero to be scrapped because "this is a regressive tax on working people". 

It should be noted that this is not the chancellor's annual budget, but is a multi-year spending review, which sets out funding for government departments.

Finally, the Reform UK politician warned that Reeves' desire for economic growth cannot be achieved while the UK has some of "the most expensive energy costs in the world".

He warned: "If you have high energy costs, there is not a single example in history of a high growth, developed economy growing fast with energy costs like ours."

Instead, Yusuf said the chancellor's review will deliver "the opposite".

He said: "We're going to get more public spending. So, what am I expecting? Unfortunately, more of the same."

Richard Fuller says the Conservative Party will be looking for three key things in the chancellor's spending review today.

The shadow chief secretary to the Treasury says these are about ensuring taxes won't need to be hiked further, whether the chancellor's figures really are a 'zero-based review' as promised, and whether Rachel Reeves is "serious" about cutting waste. 

He explains to Sky News: "First of all, is the chancellor taking the steps necessary in the spending to avoid another round of tax increases in the autumn? Public borrowing is already ahead of target. And so today, it's very important that she sends a signal that she's not coming back for additional taxes. 

"Second of all, this government's made a big thing about this being a zero-based review. You would therefore expect quite significant changes in the way in which departments work, where the funding goes. 

"And then number three. Is she being serious about waste, is she being serious about pushing for increased productivity improvements? We didn't think that the 5% target was sufficient. We think there's more opportunity in that."

Fiscal responsibility is the most important thing

Pushed on what the Conservatives would have done differently, Fuller says that the government's hike to employer national insurance contributions (NICs) earlier this year is "a very bad tax" and the Tories would have not done this. 

His party would also be "tougher on welfare", Fuller says, though he admits that welfare is not part of today's spending review.

He concludes: "For the Conservative Party, fiscal responsibility is the most important thing to aim for. And that means making sure that the day to day spending is under control."

 This spending review is a massive deal. It's a massive deal because of the sums of money and capital the government is about to allocate - 拢600bn over the next three to four years.

But it is also a massive political moment as the Labour government tries to turn the corner on a difficult first year and show voters it can deliver the change it promised.

It is not, say No 10 insiders, another reset - but rather a chance to show "working people" why they voted Labour. Look at the blitz of announcements over recent days, and this is a government trying to sell the story of renewal.

In total, there will be 拢113bn of additional capital investment, which the government will frame as the long-promised "decade of renewal" around the three pillars of security, health and the economy.

But that is only one half of this spending review and only one half of the story we will hear today.

That's because the largesse of the capital investment will be matched with spending settlements for day-to-day spending across Whitehall that will draw into sharp relief the choices and priorities of this government.

Security and health are two of her pillars, and it will be defence and health that will take a bigger share of the spending pot.

One to watch is the Home Office, where the home secretary was the last to hold out on a settlement and seems to have had it imposed on her by the chancellor.

Watch too for a squeeze on council budgets as the chancellor uses her capital budget to invest in housebuilding, while day-to-day spending is squeezed across our councils, schools and courts.

 Dr Jeevun Sandher says the spending review is a "crucial moment" for the Labour Party, and is all "about making us better off".

The Labour MP, who sits on the Commons Treasury committee, says that Britain has faced the "most serious and difficult times in almost a century".

He tells Sky News: "These are the most serious times for any government in this century, we have to rise to the challenge, and part of rising to the challenge in a democracy is being honest with people about where we stand."

Addressing the chancellor's spending review directly, Sander says Rachel Reeves is making long-term investments for the future. 

He adds: "We're making decisions today, yes making people better off in the short-run, but also years to come, decades and even generations."

No ministers are speaking to the media this morning, as the government prepares for the spending review. 

The cabinet will be meeting at 9.30am to rubber stamp the review, before the full details (few of which haven't already been trailed already) will then be announced in the Commons at lunchtime.

Today's Politics at Sam and Anne's has dropped.

After weeks of haggling between government ministers, Labour announce today how they plan to apportion cash around departments for the foreseeable future.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Labour say this comes as the government has "fixed the foundations" and introduced stability to the economy. They say the economy is "turning a corner". 

But is that totally true? And which sectors are the big winners and losers from this major statement of intent from Labour?

The Conservatives say the spending review will be the "spend today, tax tomorrow spending review".

Mel Stride has argued that the plans due to be unveiled by Rachel Reeves this lunchtime will see the government "spending money it doesn't have, with no credible plan to pay for it".

The shadow chancellor said in a statement: "Rachel Reeves talks about 'hard choices' - but her real choice has been to take the easy road.

"Spend more, borrow more, and cross her fingers. This spending review won't be a plan for the future - it will be a dangerous gamble with Britain's economic stability."

He went on: "Today, we'll hear slogans, spin and self-congratulation - but not the truth. Don't be fooled. 

"Behind the spin lies a dangerous economic gamble that risks the country's financial future."

Stride will respond to the chancellor's spending review in the Commons after she has finished speaking.