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Politics latest: PM warned he'll have to hold confidence vote if rebels defeat him - as ministers hold talks over possible welfare changes

While Keir Starmer is at a NATO summit in the Netherlands, he's dogged by questions about a rebellion brewing at home, where Labour MPs are threatening to bring down the government's welfare reforms with just days left until a pivotal vote.

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Tories to vow to dismantle Labour's new Employment Rights Bill

The Conservative Party is set to pledge to "dismantle" Labour's Employment Rights Bill, and create a "world-beating offer" for "wealth-creators".

In a speech at the Prosperity Institute tomorrow, shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith will pledge that the next Tory government will repeal the parts of the bill which "hand enormous power to trade unions who grind our economy to a halt".

Business leaders will be consulted on what else needs "dismantling", as part of efforts to "once again make the Conservative Party the party of business".

Griffith will also commit to setting up a "backing business advisory board" to help shape the Tories' business policy.

He will say in his speech: "In a complete inversion of the Labour cabinet, everyone on it will have worked in or set up a business.

"With their guidance, we will finally wield the scythe against the red tape that holds businesses back and makes us all poorer."

The shadow business secretary will also pledge to "draw up a genuinely world-beating offer for wealth creators".

"We know that you don't make the poor richer by making the rich poorer. We will not only undo the damage Labour is doing now, we will put forward a plan that makes this country the best in the world to invest and build wealth."

Businesses urged to strengthen cyber defences amid increase in Iran-adjacent attacks

By Tim Baker, political reporter

UK businesses have been warned by the government to redouble their cybersecurity efforts - as experts warn of increased Iran-adjacent attacks following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

Cybersecurity researchers shared with Sky News details of an increase in action from online actors promoting Tehran taking aim at UK-based organisations, along with American and Israeli targets.

Analysis from cybersecurity firm EclecticIQ noted a "significant uptick" in cyberattacks since the start of the Israel-Iran conflict started around a fortnight ago.

The company said this included evidence of "growing collaborations between pro-Iranian and pro-Russian hacktivist groups".

Speaking at a NATO summit today, Prime Minister Sir Keir said the likes of Iran and Russia were carrying out cyberattacks "on a regular basis" - adding that the UK had "to be prepared for them".

The prime minister added that cyberattacks should be considered "an attack on our country".

Sky News Daily: Why is the UK buying nuclear-carrying fighter jets?

The government has announced it is purchasing at least 12 new F-35 stealth jets that can carry nuclear warheads.

It's a move that's been described by Downing Street as the most significant strengthening of the nation's nuclear capability in a generation.

So, what are these jets? And why is the UK expanding its nuclear capability?

Sarah-Jane Mee speaks to Dr Thomas Withington, an award-winning analyst and expert in air defence, to understand just how big a change in defence spending this is, what the move means for the UK in NATO, and what it tells us about the shift to make the country war ready. 

If welfare bill fails, government will have to have a confidence vote, says Labour peer

As the stand-off between Labour MPs and No 10 continues over the welfare bill, a party grandee has been talking about what will happen if the government loses the vote on Tuesday.

Speaking to Andrew Marr on LBC, former Labour home secretary Lord Blunkett said: "If they lost it, they'd have to go for a vote of confidence, I think."

For context: The Labour government enjoys a massive majority of 156 seats over the other parties, meaning it should be able to pass any bills with ease. The prospect of defeat by his own backbenchers is humiliating for the prime minister.

"But the embarrassment of that one year in, the difficulty of that, leaves you with two problems," Blunkett added.

"One is you've been humiliated, and the second is you've still got the problem. You know, the welfare issue has not gone away, so solving the problem, not taking the hit, is the sensible solution."

PM 'diverted' from growing row

He said he would delay the vote until September, saying: "The timing of the vote is not crucial in anyone's book, and politics involves sometimes just giving a bit of space, talking to people."

He added the party whips "have been making these points very heavily to the people in Downing Street" - but Sir Keir Starmer "has been diverted onto the international agenda".

"I think he now needs to come back from Holland tomorrow and be absolutely clear and focused on this," Lord Blunkett said.

Some advice for both sides鈥�

On suggestions from No 10 that the vote on the welfare bill could be a confidence vote (which Starmer has denied), Blunkett said: "I think it's very silly."

His advice to Labour rebels? "Don't overplay your hand."

His advice to Downing Street? "Don't overplay your power."

Government's welfare reforms a 'knee-jerk way to save money'

Over 120 Labour MPs are set to rebel against the government on its flagship welfare reforms, and Sophy Ridge asks senior Tory James Cartlidge if the Conservatives should vote in favour of them.

He replies that Kemi Badenoch has "set three tests" for their support, which are cutting the welfare bill, doing more to get people into work, and committing to no tax rises in the autumn.

"I think that's the right thing to do," he says. "You can't just give a blank check at the end of the day. We're there to hold them to account," he said.

He describes the policy as a "knee-jerk way to save money", rather than "a big, thought-out comprehensive reform of the welfare system, which is actually what we need".

But Cartlidge refused to say if the Tories actually support the reforms themselves, outside the tests that Badenoch has set.

Tories say new defence target is 'classic smoke and mirrors'

The next guest on tonight's Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge is the shadow defence secretary, James Cartlidge, and she starts by asking if the Tories welcome the commitment to spending 5% of GDP on defence.

He replies that "in principle", the target is "fantastic", but his "big worry" for the UK is "we just don't know the details", and questions if the Treasury has allocated the money to make sure we meet the target.

The target includes 3.5% of GDP for core defence, while the remaining 1.5% will be for "national resilience", and Sophy asks him if he thinks that's the right thing to do.

Cartlidge replies: "I think this is classic smoke and mirrors."

'I genuinely worry about the threat we face'

He says we do not yet know what exactly counts as "national resilience", which makes it "a bit of a cheap play".

"That money needs to be in the defence budget," he argues, saying that the military will not be increased to levels last seen when we were spending 5% of GDP on pure defence.

Sophy puts to him that he must sympathise with the Treasury given the very tight fiscal environment, and it's easy to shout from the sidelines.

But he replies: "I'm not shouting from the sidelines, I'm a patriot - I want the country to spend more, I want our armed forces to be stronger, because I genuinely worry about the threat we face."

Ministers in talks with Labour rebels about changes to welfare bill

Sophy Ridge pushes the armed forces minister on the major domestic battle facing Keir Starmer right now: welfare reforms.

At least 123 Labour MPs say they're prepared to rebel against the controversial changes, but the PM has insisted a vote will go ahead next Tuesday despite the risk of a humiliating defeat.

Luke Pollard doubles down on the promise of a vote, but does say ministers are "of course" in dialogue with their concerned backbenchers about making changes.

"There's a concern that's very valid and real for lots of my colleagues," Pollard tells Sophy.

"Discussions will continue until the vote and beyond," he adds, and he doesn't think the PM has been dismissive of the rebels.

"Doing difficult things means you have to have difficult conversations," the minister adds.

Watch: The welfare battle explained

Pollard insists the reforms being proposed "create a huge opportunity to help people currently being failed by a broken system".

He says they "help people into work if they can work, for those who can't to provide more security, bigger payments" - and scrap the "awful" work capability assessments "that so demean those people, especially with long-term conditions, who we know can't work".

'Windfarms are not exactly tanks and drones, are they?'

The first guest on tonight's edition of Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge is the armed forces minister, Luke Pollard.

Sophy asks him if Donald Trump's public efforts to get NATO countries to spend more on defence has resulted in the 5% of GDP pledge today, and he replies: "Well, he's certainly been making a case for increasing defence spending for quite some time."

But he argues that actually "the new era of threats has largely made the argument persuasive", pointing to Russia, Iran, and North Korea in particular.

"Getting to 5% in 2035 is a really big step for the alliance. But it's not just what we spend, it's how we spend it," he continues.

What even is 'resilience and security'?

Sophy notes that 1.5% of that spending is going on "resilience and security", and she asks the minister exactly what that means.

Pollard replies that "NATO will be publishing the details shortly", but the spending in there we will on "things that keep us safe as a homeland".

Asked if spending on energy security - so renewable energy - is included in that, the minister says they need to "check that against the NATO criteria", but the resilience part of the spending pledge will "cover a lot of different sectors".

Sophy says to him: "Windfarms are not exactly tanks and drones, are they? And some people might look at this and think this is fiddling the books."

Pollard does not deny this, and says: "There's lots of different areas of government spend that could potentially fall within that."

If PM is spending so much time on global stage, someone at home needs an iron fist

If you ask former prime ministers what surprised them about their time in office, one thing that comes up again and again is how much time they end up spending on foreign policy.

Summits, international diplomacy, and often war - whether conflicts they are directly involved in, or not.

Some of the reason that foreign policy ends up taking so much time is because of the alluring glamour of strutting the international stage - but a lot of it is because, frankly, this stuff is really important.

We've seen Sir Keir Starmer focusing, understandably, on the international:

  • The diplomatic dance with Donald Trump;
  • Being a champion of Ukraine;
  • Committing to more defence spending - along with other NATO allies - at a time when our security may not always be underwritten by America.

But focusing on the international comes with a big risk, because things can sour very quickly domestically - even when you've been elected with a thumping great majority.

After being forced to U-turn on winter fuel - Starmer is now facing a rebellion by more than 100 MPs on welfare cuts.

This is the thing with rebellion. Once MPs break the whip once, it's much easier to do it again.

Is government's lack of experience costing them?

It's really struck me how little political experience Starmer has. He's a relative newbie in Westminster, which has advantages - but also means he's not steeped in the pure politics of the place.

And his team too. Look, it's not their fault, Labour have been out of power for 14 years. 

It means they don't have the experience of government, which levers to pull, how to set the media narrative, how to control hundreds of MPs.

Because if the PM is going to spend this much time on the international stage, someone has got to have an iron fist back home - strong enough to spot potential rebellions before we get to this point, and squeeze them right back down.

Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge is live

Our flagship weeknight politics programme is under way.

Joining us tonight are armed forces minister Luke Pollard MP and shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge MP

On the panel are ex-Tory minister Tom Pursglove and former SNP MP Hannah Bardell.

Watch live in the stream at the top of this page.