Polls close in double by-election battle for Tory seats
Counting is underway in the fiercely contested Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth by-elections.
Friday 20 October 2023 02:28, UK
Votes are being counted in the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by elections, with Rishi Sunak facing an anxious wait to see if a double defeat is on the cards.
The Tories are defending what should be safe seats but the governing party has admitted it would be "challenging" to hold them.
Labour and the Lib Dems initially also sought to temper expectations ahead of what are expected to be incredibly tight results, which are still too close to call.
But Labour became increasingly optimistic of a double victory as the night went on.
Shadow cabinet minister Peter Kyle, who has masterminded Labour's campaign in Mid Bedfordshire, told Sky News: "Clearly we've done very well in this by-election.
"Clearly we're doing very well in the Tamworth by-election as well."
Politics Live: Lib Dems think Labour have won Mid Bedfordshire
While Labour sources had privately expressed cautious optimism about their chances in Tamworth - national campaign co-ordinator Pat McFadden stressed after polls closed that winning "was a long shot" because of the size of the Conservative majorities.
Meanwhile Lib Dem sources said they believed Labour had won Mid Bedfordshire but claimed they helped them clinch it by reducing the Tory vote share.
But Labour suggested that was expectation management from the party of Sir Ed Davey, with one source telling Sky News: "Whatever happens, the Lib Dems are going to come third and that's just embarrassing given their campaign."
While the Tamworth seat in Staffordshire is seen as a two-horse race between the Tories and Labour, the Lib Dems set their sights on the more rural area of Mid Bedfordshire as part of their efforts to tear down the Conservatives' so-called "blue wall".
Fighting between Labour and the Lib Dems for the seat led to some experts predicting the Tories could win through the middle if the opposition vote is split.
Voters began casting their ballots at 7am, with polling stations shutting their doors at 10pm, and results are expected in the early hours of Friday morning.
Watch our Sky News by-election special on TV from midnight and follow all the updates online in the Politics Hub.
Both seats are vacant after the high-profile departures of their previous MPs.
Former cabinet minister Nadine Dorries quit - eventually - as Mid Bedfordshire's MP in anger at being denied a peerage in Boris Johnson's resignation honours list.
In Tamworth, Chris Pincher resigned after being found to have drunkenly groped two men in an "egregious case of sexual misconduct" at London's exclusive Carlton Club last year - an incident which helped trigger Mr Johnson's exit from No 10 because of his handling of the situation.
Read more: Biscuits, buttocks and shock results - why by-elections are rarely boring
After polls closed, a Tory spokesman said: "These were always going to be challenging by-elections and the rule of thumb is that governments don't win them.
"We have seen little to no enthusiasm for Sir Keir Starmer who voters can see stands for nothing and always puts short term political gain first."
Mr McFadden said his party was "in the race" in "usually safe Tory seats".
"But we have known all along that winning these seats would be a long shot, with huge majorities to overturn," he added.
"The fact that we are even on the pitch is a sign of how far the Labour Party has changed."
For the Liberal Democrats, Cabinet Office spokeswoman Christine Jardine said that, "whatever the outcome, it is clear that the Lib Dem vote has surged in true blue villages across Bedfordshire, as former lifelong Conservative voters choose to send this government a message".
Tamworth has been a Conservative seat since 2010, with the party winning a majority of almost 20,000 at the last election.
If Labour win it would be the largest Conservative majority overturned at a by-election since 1945 - beating the 40.7% overturned by the Lib Dems in Tiverton and Honiton in June 2022.
It would also mean the three largest Conservative majorities overturned at by-elections since 1945 all taking place in this parliament, with the Lib Dems overturning a 40.6% majority in Shropshire North in 2021.
Labour has taken Tamworth at a by-election previously, in 1996, when the constituency was called South East Staffordshire - and until the results are announced, we won't know who will take over the seats for the rest of this parliament.
But Mid Bedfordshire has been blue since 1931, and had an even larger Tory majority of almost 25,000 back in 2019.