Polls show Hillary Clinton's election 'firewall' could be crumbling
With less than a week until election day, Sky's polling analyst says Donald Trump has carved out potential routes to victory.
Thursday 3 November 2016 18:23, UK
A week ago, it was very difficult to see a path to victory for Donald Trump.聽
He was well behind in the national polls, and the state polls indicated he needed to win all of the states in which he was already competitive, and also flip a substantial Clinton lead in another couple of states to get the 270 electoral votes he needs to gain the White House.
While he remains the underdog, several potential paths to a Trump Presidency have emerged as the polls have narrowed.
:: Toss-up states - Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina
Realistically, Donald Trump needs to win all of these states to stay in the game.
Ohio and Iowa have been fairly friendly for Mr Trump throughout the race - testament to his appeal among working class white voters.
While Mrs Clinton could still win these states, it would be a bit of an upset.
The unusual nature of this race is attested to by Arizona's presence on this list. Usually a reliably Republican state - it has not been won by a Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1996 - the vote of educated white voters (who usually vote Republican but have been put off by Mr Trump's campaign) and Hispanic voters (among whom Mr Trump has consistently struggled, having repeatedly accused Mexican immigrants of being "criminals" and "rapists") has made this a race Clinton looked like winning until recent days.
The Hispanic vote will also be key in Florida and Nevada. Florida looks so close that when Five Thirty Eight - an American electoral forecaster - simulated how likely each candidate was to win the state ten thousand times, it came out at exactly five thousand for each.
North Carolina in particular looked like fairly safe territory for Mrs Clinton until recently, but a couple of recent polls have suggested Trump may be ahead. Real Clear Politics currently has the state at level pegging, on exactly 46.4% each.
:: The potential tipping points - Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire
Let's say Mr Trump has won all of the toss-ups. At this point, he would have 266 of the 270 votes he needs to win the White House.
But this is where it gets trickier for him. As it stands, Mrs Clinton has a clear polling lead in all the remaining states - her "firewall".
One poll on Wednesday in Virginia will have given him some hope, however - though Mrs Clinton has been consistently ahead through the race, Hampton University found her three percentage points behind.
On Thursday a poll from MassInc also showed Trump one point ahead in New Hampshire - with both campaigns set to hit the trail in the Granite State over the final stretch.
And a poll from the University of Denver now has Colorado at a tie.
For each of these states, most polls have still shown Mrs Clinton ahead - it's likely that she will win all three.
But unlike last week, it would now not be a complete shock if he managed to flip one of them.
And were he to do so and win the toss-up states, that would be enough to put him in the White House.