AG百家乐在线官网

Analysis

Scotland's Labour weren't the only winners in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election

Reform is an "electoral force north of the border" - finishing just three percentage points behind the SNP, writes Sky's Rob Powell.

By-election Scottish Conservative candidate Richard Nelson (left) and Reform UK party's candidate Ross Lambie. Pic: PA
Image: Reform UK party's candidate Ross Lambie (R) 'ate up Tory votes', Sky's Rob Powell writes. Pic: PA
Why you can trust Sky News

In the centre of Hamilton, stands the now derelict Bairds department store - a reminder of the past and a sign of the political present.

Outside, people speak of a time when the high street was busy and the area buzzing.

As in other areas of the country, the blame for this sense of decline is placed at the door of the established parties.

Powell VT
Image: The derelict Bairds of Hamilton department store in Scotland.

"The SNP have done nothing for Hamilton… we need someone to do something and I'm not sure Labour will do it", said one woman stopping for a chat outside Belles Tearoom.

Apathy once again prevails.

But just over seven thousand people came up with a solution unusual for Scottish politics on Thursday.

Nigel Farage.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage speaks during a press conference in Westminster.
Pic: PA
Image: Reform UK finished third behind the SNP - with a 26% share of the vote. Pic: PA.

This by-election signals the arrival of Reform as an electoral force north of the border.

From a standing start and with little in the way of campaigning infrastructure, the party finished just three percentage points behind the SNP.

As he's become accustomed to in England, Nigel Farage ate up Tory votes here.

But that does not account for the party's surge.

"We took votes off all the parties… there's a huge surge of young people from the SNP, particularly young men, coming to us," said Thomas Kerr, a local Reform councillor and campaigner.

For the party, this is explained by independence becoming less of a determinant of electoral support - and domestic issues like the cost of living and the NHS taking priority instead.

It's just one factor that's causing traditional political axioms to be scrambled, chief among them - the assumption that Scots will never vote for Nigel Farage.

Powell VT
Image: The Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse by-election result was a surprise win for Scottish Labour.

His party can now be confident of picking up their first MSPs in next May's parliamentary elections.

So for the established parties, this may all mean a strategic rethink.

What is the politically expedient position on immigration in Scotland now?

What of the socially liberal identity issues previously championed by the SNP?

But there's a more fundamental tension, too.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Labour victory and Reform surge in by-election

Both the SNP and Labour ran campaigns casting this by-election as a two-horse race between them and Reform.

The result clearly shows a three-way splintering.

That could get messy in the world of coalitions that often comes from the proportionate voting system in Holyrood.

For now though, Labour will take the win and try to use it to turn round their flagging ratings.

This is no definite inflection point, though.

Labour sources say the sophistication of their digital campaign in this race played a big role, with others pointing to the pull of a popular local candidate.

But it's also worth remembering that before the SNP surge of 2015, this section of West Central Scotland would have been regarded as a Labour stronghold.

Read more on Sky News:
Trump says Musk has 'lost his mind'
Why did Zia Yusuf resign as chairman of Reform UK?

It was painted red again last year, with convincing wins in the general election.

So on paper, this could have been a tidying-up exercise for Labour.

It speaks volumes about the party's wider standing that the win was so unexpected.

SNP leader John Swinney may have a point when he says the close result shows his party making progress after the pummelling they took here just 11 months ago.

There aren't any runner-up prizes in politics, though.

Get Sky News on WhatsApp
Get Sky News on WhatsApp

Follow our channel and never miss an update.

Six hundred votes have denied the SNP a much-needed political shot in the arm and taught them they cannot just cruise to victory on the back of disdain for Sir Keir Starmer.

Back in Hamilton, and Bairds is not the only monument of the past here.

For the SNP, the town stands as an emblem of the electoral successes of yesteryear.

A shock victory by Winnie Ewing in a 1967 by-election signalled the party's entry on to the political stage and triggered a rethink among their establishment rivals.

It's an irony likely not lost on many in Scottish politics that Reform has used this slice of the central belt to do exactly the same thing.