Suella Braverman says risk of terrorism 'rising' as review says Islamist terror is primary threat

The Home Secretary Suella Braverman was speaking following up update to the government's counter-terrorism strategy, CONTEST. Islamist and right-wing extremism were highlighted as the two main threats in the UK.

Tim Baker

Political reporter

Tuesday 18 July 2023 14:17, UK

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The risk from terrorism is "rising", Home Secretary Suella Braverman has said.

The cabinet minister was speaking as the government published a review of its counter-terrorism strategy, , which has been updated for the first time in five years.

Ms Braverman said: "We now face a domestic terrorist threat which is less predictable, harder to detect and investigate; a persistent and evolving threat from Islamist terrorist groups overseas; and an operating environment where technology continues to provide both opportunity and risk to our counter-terrorism efforts.

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"We therefore judge that the risk from terrorism is once again rising."

In a speech accompanying the release of the report, Ms Braverman added that the rise was from a "lower base", and the risk is "not as high as a few years ago".

The CONTEST strategy has been around since 2003, and was last updated in 2018 following the five terror attacks in 2017 - which included the Manchester Arena bombing and the London Bridge attack.

Since then, there have been nine terror attacks, which killed six people and injured 20 others - and a further 39 attacks were disrupted, according to the Home Office.

What are the main threats?

This year's review highlights how the "primary domestic terrorist threat" comes from "Islamist terrorism".

It makes up "approximately 67% of attacks since 2018, about three-quarters of MI5's caseload and 64% of those in custody for terrorism-connected offences" as of March this year.

The next most serious threat is right-wing extremism; the Home Office reckons this makes up approximately 22% of attacks since 2018, a quarter of MI5's caseload and 28% of those in custody for terrorism-connected offences.

When it comes to Islamist extremism, the review states that there is a "diminishing" link between perpetrators and "explicit affiliation and fixed ideological alignment" with any one group.

Why is the threat of terrorism rising?

In its CONTEST review, the Home Office said the threat from terrorism is "enduring and evolving", and highlighted three key areas as to why the risk is rising:

First, it said the domestic threat is less predictable, harder to detect and harder to investigate.

Secondly, there is a "persistent and evolving threat" from Islamist terrorist groups overseas.

And thirdly, advances in technology are an increasing risk - although the same leaps forward can also be used in an attempt to counter terrorists.

This is due to the "relative decline" in al Qaeda and - to a lesser extent - the Islamic State (IS), also known as Daesh.

A shrinking in the number of Islamist figureheads and an increasingly online world means there are a greater number of "issues and grievances from a wider range of sources becoming influences and drivers" of terrorists.

For right-wing extremists, there is less organisation when compared to Islamic terrorists, according to the new review.

Rather than formal groups with a leadership structure and plans to seize territory, extreme right-wing groups tend to consist of "informal online communities which facilitate international links".

The risks of technology

Distributed structures and online organisation are areas highlighted several times in the CONTEST update.

The review states the "accelerating availability of new technologies and online platforms provides both opportunity and risk to our counter-terrorism efforts".

"Terrorists exploit technology to hide their networks, spread their propaganda and enable their attacks.

"Technology is a critical enabler of our counter-terrorism efforts, where careful and proportionate use of cutting-edge techniques can make our response more efficient and effective."

It says the small rise in the number of investigations into and arrests of minors by counter-terrorism police was mostly linked to online behaviour.

But more than half of those under 18 convicted of terrorism in the past five years were charged with non-violent crimes, like collecting or sharing terrorist information.

The internet has contributed to the "rapid proliferation" of terrorist content online, including live streams of attacks, which the CONTEST review says is "especially potent and harmful".

The review also says that artificial intelligence has "implications for both our approach to counter-terrorism and the threats we face, with the potential for terrorist activity to become more sophisticated with less effort".

"While it could radically speed up the process of threat detection, terrorists are likely to exploit the technology to create and amplify radicalising content, propaganda and instructional materials, and to plan and commit attacks," it adds.

End-to-end encryption, which the government wants to create a back door into, is highlighted as an area of concern, as well as cryptocurrencies.

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