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Swirling polar vortex linked to deadly cluster of storms in 2022, say UK scientists

Researchers say a spinning mass of cold air in the stratosphere above the Arctic in 2022 made it up to three times more likely there would be intense storms in the UK and Ireland.

Thursday 27 March 2025 23:13, UK

Waves crashing on the seafront at Blackpool before Storm Dudley hits the north of England/southern Scotland from Wednesday night into Thursday morning, closely followed by Storm Eunice, which will bring strong winds and the possibility of snow on Friday. Picture date: Wednesday February 16, 2022.
Image: Waves crashing on the seafront at Blackpool as Storm Dudley hit in February 2022. File pic: PA
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Scientists say a "swirling polar vortex" miles above the Earth caused three deadly storms in the UK and Ireland, which brought severe flooding and record wind speeds.

Four people lost their lives when Dudley, Eunice and Franklin hit in February 2022, and 1.4 million households were left without electricity.

It was the first time three named storms have been recorded within a seven-day period since the storm-naming system began in 2015.

Researchers have concluded the cluster was connected to stronger winds in the Arctic stratosphere.

The finding, published in the journal , show there was an extremely strong stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) - a large spinning mass of cold air in the stratosphere around 15 miles above the Arctic - in February 2022.

Scientists said the strong SPV made it up to three times more likely there would be intense storms affecting the UK and northern Europe during the month.

The results also showed that the strong SPV increased the likelihood of three or more storms reaching the UK in a single week by around 80% compared with when the SPV is normal.

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A stranded vehicle in flood water in Belper, Derbyshire as Britons have been warned to brace for strengthening winds and lashing rain as Storm Franklin moved in overnight, just days after Storm Eunice destroyed buildings and left 1.4 million homes without power. Picture date: Monday February 21, 2022.
Image: Storm Franklin caused flooding in Belper, Derbyshire, days after Storm Eunice struck. File pic: PA
A fallen tree blocking a road in Sudbury, Suffolk, as Storm Eunice sweeps across the UK after hitting the south coast earlier on Friday. With attractions closing, travel disruption and a major incident declared in some areas, people have been urged to stay indoors. Picture date: Friday February 18, 2022.
Image: Storm Eunice swept across the UK bringing down trees, like this one in Sudbury in Suffolk. File pic: PA
A cyclist goes through flood water by the river Thames at Putney, London after Storm Dudley hit on Thursday night. Picture date: Thursday February 17, 2022.
Image: Parts of the Thames flooded, including in Putney, after Storm Dudley. File pic: PA

Researchers now believe this could help forecasters assess when there is an increased risk of storm clusters up to a month before they happen.

Lead author Dr Ryan Williams, who carried out the research while at the University of Leeds, said: "Being able to provide early warnings of possible severe weather is all the more pertinent with climate change."

"There is evidence that major winter storms will become more intense, exacerbating impacts such as flooding and wind damage," he added.

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A total of seven storms were tracked near the UK during February 2022, the fourth-highest number during February since 1979.

Storm Eunice, which hit on 18 February, was described as a once-in-a-decade event and the most severe since 2014.

Huge waves hitting the sea wall at Porthcawl, Wales, after Storm Franklin moved in overnight, just days after Storm Eunice destroyed buildings and left 1.4 million homes without power. Picture date: Monday February 21, 2022.
Image: The storms during February 2022 battered coasts and brought down power lines, cutting supplies to 1.4 million customers. File pic: PA
Members of the public brace the wind and wet weather in Westminster central London following Storm Eunice. Picture date: Friday February 18, 2022.
Image: Storm Eunice was called a once-in-a-decade event. File pic: PA
Damage to the white roof covering at the O2 arena in London, which will remain closed until Friday after parts of it were torn away from supporting ribs by high winds during the storm Eunice on Friday. Picture date: Monday February 21, 2022.
Image: Part of the O2 arena in London had its roof ripped away in the high winds. File pic: PA

Wind gusts of 122mph were registered at The Needles on the Isle of Wight, a record high for England.

Researchers say that the signs of a strong SPV was evident from forecasts carried out as early as November 2021. It means that potentially spotting these conditions could help better predict extreme weather in future.

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Co-author Jeff Knight, from the UK's Met Office, said: "It's been understood for a while that the Arctic stratosphere can affect the type of winter we get in the UK, but these results show that it can even affect the occurrence of stormy spells within the season.

"An intense stratospheric polar vortex can now be recognised as a warning to forecasters of increased risks of damaging storms.

"This was likely seen in the most recent winter, around the time of storm Eowyn in late January [2025]," he said.

When Eowyn struck, the Met Office warned it posed a "greater risk of storm clustering".

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