The band of 11 who broke Corbyn and May on Brexit
Wednesday 27 February 2019 05:58, UK
Beth Rigby, deputy political editor
It began with the formation of The Independent Group (TIG) of MPs, continued with a commitment to a second referendum from Jeremy Corbyn, and concluded with Theresa May agreeing to delay Brexit.
This has been a most remarkable week in politics.
These are developments that just days ago would have seemed almost impossible to imagine. The Labour leader making another referendum his new Brexit policy and the Conservative prime minister prepared to delay leaving the EU?
Not a chance.
But the decision of a band of moderate, pro-EU Labour and Conservative MPs to quit their respective parties changed all of that. Modest in numbers - a total of 11 defectors - but bold in intent.
Two parliamentary parties, which for decades had contained within them a spectrum of views, are now creating political orphans in the voter sweet spot of the centre ground.
Proof of that came sharply as TIG-ers, not yet even a political party, were polling at 14% just days after their creation.
The rumour mill went into overdrive over further defections from both sides, with those MPs threatening trouble for their respective party leaderships now a very potent force.
It certainly focused the minds of the two party leaders, as both Mrs May and Mr Corbyn shifted their Brexit positions to where the mainstream of their parties stand.
For Mr Corbyn this was to announce his support for a second referendum if he cannot get the Brexit deal he wants.
The risk of the People's Vote band in parliament following Chuka Umunna et al out of the door was simply too great.
In reality, a plan to hold another referendum probably won't get through parliament, so this is a promise Mr Corbyn might never have to actually keep. But that he was forced into making the pledge for fear of a split is ample proof that this was the week traditional command-and-control party politics was turned on its head.
And that is true too of Mrs May.
For weeks she has refused to rule out no deal or even countenance a delay to Brexit.
And yet, she, like Mr Corbyn, was forced to move this week by a mainstream fightback in her own ministerial ranks.
On Tuesday, less that 24 hours after refusing to even countenance a delay to Brexit at a press conference at the Arab-EU summit Sharm-el-Sheikh, the prime minister performed the most spectacular of about-turns, telling parliament that she would give MPs a vote on delaying Brexit if her deal didn't pass.
"She was dragged there," said one of her MPs involved in talks.
"But the chief whip [Julian Smith] and her chief of staff [Gavin Barwell] were telling her there was no other option. She had to accept the reality."
Two leaders bounced by their parties into places they would rather not go, but these are sticking plasters over deep and bloody splits which will, inevitably, at some point re-open.
For Labour, the schism between the leadership and the social democratic wing of the party remains. Mr Corbyn's offer of a second referendum is smart politics to assuage would-be defectors, for now.
But centrist MPs are still being bullied in their constituency parties and threatened with deselection. They are neither represented on the front bench or given voice over policy. Many are still considering walking out.
Deputy leader Tom Watson's efforts to create a new group in the party to give the social democratic wing of MPs greater influence is an attempt to keep Labour a broad church. But even those involved in the project quietly admit it is likely to be in vain.
On the Conservative side, the Remainer fight back has, in effect, killed off a no deal Brexit.
Mrs May knows that if a second vote on her deal doesn't pass, MPs will overwhelmingly vote no deal and for the three-month extension to Article 50 she is now offering.
And while Mrs May warned in the Commons that putting off the departure date would only lead to a "much sharper cliff-edge", she won't in reality be in charge of that.
MPs could overrule her and seek a much longer delay if they deem necessary.
It leaves the Brexiteers in a difficult position. If they don't back Mrs May's deal they risk not only a delay but the possibility that Brexit is thwarted altogether.
There will be a hardcore in the Eurosceptic European Research Group (ERG) who simply will not budge, but Number 10 is now laser-focused on winning enough concessions on the backstop to gain support of the DUP.
The band of 11 who quit their parties to form TIG have done more to shift Brexit policy in seven days than opposition parties have done collectively in two years
"The DUP are key to unlocking this," says one senior Tory MP.
"If she can get them on board, half the ERG will come with them."
Labour's shift has also helped Mrs May's cause. There are two dozen or so Labour Leave MPs who are furious about the second referendum and negotiating with Mrs May's team on what reassurances they need to support her deal.
But even if Mrs May does succeed in passing her deal, she could well struggle to stay on as leader.
Contemptuous of how she negotiated Britain's exit from the EU, many of her MPs are adamant she cannot be the person to lead future trade deal talks and will want to swap her for a true Brexiteer.
This has been undoubtedly a week of victory for the band of 11 who quit their parties to form TIG. They have done more to shift Brexit policy in seven days than opposition parties have done collectively in two years.
And its very possible that this group will do far more if the two main parties keep tacking to the left and right rather than sticking to the middle ground.
A Conservative Party driven by its Eurosceptic wing rather than its One Nation tradition, and a Labour leadership in permanent conflict with centrist MPs, can only help the TIG recruitment drive.
A remarkable week could well turn into a remarkable movement if more MPs decide its easier to change their parties from outside rather than from within.
Sky Views is a series of comment pieces by Sky News editors and correspondents, published every morning.
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