The Budget: Wrath of white van man may have been quelled
The Chancellor needed to please businesses after his national insurance backtrack at the last Budget, says Robert Nisbet.
Thursday 23 November 2017 15:50, UK
Philip Hammond hardly had an ideal build-up to this Budget, so one could forgive his obvious nerves as he stood at the despatch box.
Sunday's gaffe over whether there were any unemployed people in the UK led some to speculate whether the Chancellor might become the first.
He has also become a lightning rod for the anger of the more committed Brexit-supporting MPs, who have been furiously briefing against him to colleagues and journalists.
So this Budget was not just fiscally cautious, but politically too.
:: All the key Budget points at a glance
:: Stamp duty giveaway 'will push up house prices'
:: Corbyn: Britain 'let down' by 'weak' Government
Here were the potholes he had to avoid:
:: SMALL BUSINESSES
In the last Budget in March, it was Mr Hammond's decision to raise revenue by targeting small businesses over national insurance that led first to an outcry - then a backtrack.
The measure so alarmed Conservative backbenchers that one told me the Chancellor had been "mortally wounded".
He limped on however, and avoided a similar misstep on Wednesday by going out of his way to insulate Britain's five million small businesses.
He froze the threshold at which they pay VAT (after rumours it would drop), protected van drivers from punitive diesel taxes, and changed the formulation of business rates from RPI to CPI, which should save businesses around £3bn a year.
The wrath of the white van man may have been neutralised.
:: HOUSEBUILDING
This had been heavily leaked, but there's no doubt that wiping out stamp duty for first-time buyers for houses up to £300,000 will grab the headlines.
Politically, it's an obvious overture to young voters, who have been abandoning the Conservatives in droves.
Which leads us on to:
:: HIGH-TECH INVESTMENT/ ENVIRONMENT
This is not just an attempt to boost research and development in a booming area, it has two political advantages.
Driverless cars and raising a takeaway tax on plastic packaging are both subjects that appeal to younger, more tech-savvy voters.
Secondly, it helps the Chancellor project an optimistic, upbeat message as we prepare for Brexit.
It's almost as if he was saying: "Pouring an extra £3bn into a Brexit warchest may look alarming, but we'll be a digital and clean-planet world beater!"
:: NHS/ EDUCATION
The announcements of £2.8bn in resource funding for the NHS and £600 per Maths A-Level pupil for schools were partly the result of MP pester-power.
Many Conservative MPs saw their vote share shrink at the last election, as their hospitals and schools struggled to cope with increased demand and budgetary constraints.
So while Mr Hammond may have been accused of a 'tin ear', he couldn't ignore such concerns.
Jeremy Corbyn argued the measures are nowhere near enough, but they may provide some political padding.
In terms of nurses' pay, his promise to fund any settlement will also be politically popular within his own party.
:: FINAL TAKEAWAY
Apart from stamp duty, there were few big surprises, but with a sluggish economy and Brexit looming, the Chancellor didn't really have the room for grand gestures.
But Mr Hammond remains a divisive and damaged figure in a party struggling with a dangerously small working majority.
He may survive for a few months, but if things get difficult as we approach EU exit day, he could still be jettisoned for party unity.