The coup in Myanmar demands a response - but sanctions could be catastrophic and may not even work
The untargeted sanctions of the 1990s and early 2000s are something Myanmar does not want repeated, writes Sky's Siobhan Robbins.
Tuesday 2 February 2021 19:21, UK
Within hours of the military coup in Myanmar, US President Joe Biden sent a clear message that sanctions could be back on the table.
Humanitarian groups hope this, along with discussions at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), will be the start of united action to push the country back on to a democratic path.
But while sanctions are often a weapon first brandished in anger, they are not always the best solution.
Even before Monday's coup, there was an awful lot of financial pain.
COVID-19 has hit the economy hard and people are hurting.
If the international community triggers wide-ranging economic sanctions, it could be catastrophic.
This is a message echoed by many residents and analysts inside the country.
The painful memory of broad base, untargeted sanctions enacted by countries including the US on Myanmar in the 1990s and early 2000s are exactly the type of penalties many warn against repeating.
"I was in Myanmar at that time and the experience was that they primarily hit the economy and the ordinary people and not those in power, who were best equipped to evade them and were not greatly troubled by them," said Yangon-based political analyst Richard Horsey.
"I think it would be foolish to continue to imagine that those kind of generalised trade and economic embargoes would change the situation for the positive.
"They didn't work then as a means of getting change or as a means of targeting those who the sanctioning countries wanted to target, and they won't work now."
Instead, sanctions targeting coup leaders have more support. For example, stopping top generals doing business with nationals based in the US, Canada and the EU, or hitting military-owned companies.
But even that may not be enough.
Army chief Min Aung Hlaing has already been sanctioned by the US and the UK due to a brutal crackdown against Rohingya Muslims, but it didn't stop him leading a coup.
The reality is the West's influence in Asia has declined and in a power game based on exerting precise and effective pressure, some countries have more leverage than others.
It is therefore the response of China, Myanmar's neighbour, that many are now closely watching.
"I'm not really optimistic about the UNSC producing any sort of meaningful or actionable resolution that can actually put pressure on the military to bring democracy back to Myanmar because China is a permanent member," said John Liu, a reporter at the Myanmar Times.
"It has been supporting Myanmar regardless over the last few decades, be it over the Rohingya issue or even just dating back to when the military had the country isolated from the rest of the world.
"China has the leverage to negotiate with the military as the one who would support Myanmar on a global stage and economically. But will China actually do that, or is it in China's interests to do that?"
But Myanmar's military has a complex relationship with China, and they know that any support from Beijing wouldn't come for free.
"There's a very simplistic narrative that if the West is tough on Burma, that Burma runs to China, but the reality is that Burma has been angry with China for quite some time," said Phil Robertson, deputy director of Human Rights Watch's Asia division.
"China is the primary sponsor of the Northern Alliance. You've got the United Wa State Army, which is the largest insurgent army in the country, backed by China with Chinese weapon systems so assuming that somehow Burma will immediately run to China and start playing kissy-face is simply not the case."
As far as we know, military leaders didn't ask for the views of China or Russia before they staged the coup.
If they had, they would have likely been told no.
The danger is that they won't listen to any outside opinions.
Instead motivated by pride and power, these generals may be so certain that they are the rightful rulers of Myanmar, the country's true saviours, that they will continue blindly down their chosen path regardless of pressure from the people or the international community.