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Analysis

The question of Donald Trump's immunity from prosecution is a pivotal moment for him and the nation

The Supreme Court has concluded that it will take up the question of whether Trump is immune from prosecution.聽The decision concerns the most serious of all the cases against the former president.

Donald Trump gestures at a campaign event in North Charleston, South Carolina.
Pic: Reuters
Image: Pic: Reuters
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This is a pivotal moment for Donald Trump's legal journey and potentially for America. It is a decision which could mean that he never faces trial.聽

The Supreme Court has concluded that it will take up the question of whether Mr Trump is immune from prosecution.

The implications of their decision to answer that question are as much about timing as they are about their eventual judgment.

It's complicated but so important. So read on.

The decision concerns the most serious of all the cases against Trump.

It's about the federal case against a former president accused of insurrection, of election subversion, and of inciting a mob to attack the crucible of American democracy on January 6th 2021.

MARCH 2nd 2023: The United States Department of Justice says former President Donald Trump is not entitled to immunity from civil lawsuits over the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol Building. - MAY 19th 2021: The United States House of Representatives has passed a bipartisan bill to create a special commission to investigate the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol Building. - File Photo by: zz/STRF/STAR MAX/IPx 2021 1/6/21 QAnon Shaman Jake Angeli is seen as The United States Capitol Building in Washington, D.C. was breached by thousands of protesters during a "Stop The Steal" rally in support of President Donald Trump during the worldwide coronavirus pandemic. The demonstrators were protesting the results of the 2020 United States presidential election where Donald Trump was defeated by Joe Biden. While there was a significant police presence attempting to keep the peace - including law enforcement officers and agents from The U.S. Capitol Police, The Virginia State Police, The Metropolitan Police of The District of Columbia, The National Guard, and The FBI - demonstrators used chemical irritants to breach the interior of The Capitol Building. This, while the Democratic Party gained control of The United States Senate - sweeping the Georgia Runoff Election and securing two additional seats. (Washington, D.C.)
Image: The US Capitol Building was stormed in January 2021. Pic: AP

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The case was, at one stage, due to go to trial next week.

But predictably, Donald Trump's team deployed delay tactics - hoping to push the trial of the presumptive Republican candidate beyond the election in November.

They claimed that as a president, he is immune from prosecution and so they appealed to the DC Appeals Court to throw the case out. But that court concluded he is not immune.

He then appealed higher, to the nation's Supreme Court.

There was an expectation that the Supreme Court would decide not to hear the case - an assumption based partly on the fact that it has taken the justices so long to decide.

But they have chosen to hear the appeal. The nine justices of a court weighted towards conservatives will decide if Donald Trump is immune.

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So why is their decision to hear the case and make the immunity judgment so significant?

It is all about timing.

The case will now not go to trial until late summer at the very earliest.

This is because they will take weeks to make their immunity decision and - assuming they conclude he is not immune - there will then be weeks of pre-trial work including jury selection.

By mid to late summer, it might be too close to the election itself to hold a trial. And so it may be delayed beyond the election.

That would mean that the American people would not hear a case against a former president accused of the most serious of crimes - insurrection - before he is potentially re-elected.

Polling suggests that the public would be far less likely to vote for a convicted Trump than they are for an accused Trump.

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If the trial is delayed beyond the election, and Trump wins, he'll surely find a way to throw the case out.

If he loses, the trial would go ahead after the election. Extraordinary jeopardy for Mr Trump and the nation.