There are signs a Gaza deal might be close, but there are still many unanswered questions
Although Hamas has not been defeated militarily, some IDF commanders believed they have achieved the majority of their goals in Gaza.
Tuesday 14 January 2025 04:07, UK
We've been here before, on the cusp of a Gaza ceasefire, only for hopes to be dashed by a disagreement over the conditions, internal political chicanery or a basic lack of will on one side or the other.
This time feels different. There was reportedly a breakthrough in the early hours of Monday morning and negotiations in Doha are said to be "at an advanced stage".
Both Hamas and Israel have been presented with a final draft of the proposal.
Events are moving hourly at the moment. Hamas's leadership was said to be meeting on Monday night to discuss the proposal and is expected to give its response within hours. President Biden spoke with the Qatari Emir on the phone earlier in the evening and the Head of Turkish intelligence will speak to Hamas later.
Gaza ceasefire deal is 'on the brink', Biden says
Two Israeli government departments have reportedly been told to prepare to receive hostages in the coming days and Israel is said to have submitted a list of Palestinian prisoners to be released as part of the deal.
Further to that, sources who are normally reliable to brief on progress of talks are either saying little, or nothing at all, wary of how delicate things are. An indication of how seriously this is being taken.
Another sign a deal might be close is the public opposition by far-right members of the Israeli government who want to keep fighting in Gaza - the finance minister Bezalel Smotrich described it as a "catastrophe" in a tweet. But the two main opposition leaders, Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz, have told Netanyahu he has their support.
Four Israeli soldiers were killed in northern Gaza over the weekend and another five on Monday morning, demonstrating that Hamas has not been defeated militarily in Gaza, but also underlining why a ceasefire now would be welcome for some IDF commanders who believe that after 16 months of fighting they have now achieved many of their goals in Gaza and the next phase is long overdue.
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There are still many unanswered questions: how many hostages will be released in the first stage and how many Palestinian prisoners in return, where will the IDF withdraw to in Gaza and what guarantee is there that the ceasefire will be extended beyond the first phase?
But all things taken together, the signs look good. The next 24 hours are set to be crucial.