Theresa May's 'deal or no deal' could become 'deal or delay Brexit'
While Theresa May cannot rule out no deal, the Remainers in her party may soon be able to do it for her.
Monday 25 February 2019 05:04, UK
In the face of the biggest-ever parliamentary defeat for a sitting prime minister, a vote of confidence in her leadership, and a confidence vote in her government, Theresa May has stuck to a now familiar script: it's my deal or no deal.
Her red lines have remained indelible in the face of what at times must feel like almost unbearable pressure from her MPs, her party and her cabinet.
Britain must leave the customs union and single market in order to control immigration and strike free trade deals around the world, no deal has to be an option and Britain will leave on 29 March - this is her compact with the British people.
But her confirmation as she landed in Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt, for the EU-Arab summit that MPs may have to wait until 12 March for a meaningful vote on the final Brexit deal could well see the re-writing of that script - and not by her hand.
Without a reworked withdrawal agreement to bring back to her MPs, the prime minister has little choice but to delay - again.
She insisted - twice - when I asked her about a delay and the implications of that on her government that leaving with a deal on 29 March was "still within our grasp".
She will address MPs again on Tuesday, ahead of a motion being put to the House of Commons on Wednesday. She will no doubt implore them to stick with her and hold their nerve, but by the end of play on Wednesday the narrative is likely to change to 'vote for May's deal or face Brexit delay'.
Those couple of dozen or so government and cabinet ministers threatening to rebel on the matter of no deal - even if it means resigning from government - do not appear to have had their minds changed one jot by Mrs May's latest delay.
Tobias Ellwood, defence minister, told me "it's time to put country before party".
"The scale of damage no deal would do to our economy, security and reputation and the growing threat it might happen by default overshadows any leverage it may have in our negotiations with the EU," he said.
"We must put country first and rule no deal out."
Of course, Mrs May could never rule out no deal - even if she probably would dearly like to - for fear of reprisals from her Eurosceptic wing who have warned the "end of government" if Mrs May requests an extension of Article 50.
So instead she is letting Remainers in her party do it for her as up to 30 gear up to support a proposal put forward by Labour's Yvette Cooper and Conservative Oliver Letwin that would pave the way for legislation to enable the UK to ask the EU to delay Brexit.
If this amendment passes on Wednesday, Mrs May will have until 13 March to deliver her deal. She has set her deadline to bring back a vote on her proposal by 12 March. That really is running her options to the wire.
She can continue negotiating with Brussels over the next two weeks knowing that she has a delay cushion from parliament if her Brexiteers still refuse to bend.
That she has not sought to sack, or even reprimand, three cabinet ministers who are threatening to resign over ruling out no deal shows just how weak the prime minister now is.
She has been buffeted by Brexiteers and now it is the turn of the Remainers.
Of course, the combustible part of the re-writing of the script is what the Brexiteers will do should their colleagues block a no deal exit. It could herald the unravelling of a party that for 30 years has hung together despite the EU fault-line that runs through it.
Mrs May might, in the end, get her deal, but it will come at a cost - one way or another.