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Analysis

Theresa May's 'risk of no Brexit' warning leaves her situation critical

The prime minister is playing a high stakes game by moving her argument on from "my deal or no deal", says Sky's Faisal Islam.

Theresa May leaving Sky
Image: Theresa May spoke to Sky's Sophy Ridge on Sunday
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Submit a letter calling for a confidence vote in me and you will be putting Brexit at risk altogether.

That was the message from Theresa May to her own backbenchers this morning.

She told Sky News she had not been told by the chair of the Tories' 1992 Committee, Sir Graham Brady, whether the threshold for a confidence vote - 48 MPs - had been reached.

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'The backstop can only ever be temporary'

There was a startled pause, though, when asked directly by Sophy Ridge if the threshold had been reached.

Her central argument now appears not that it is "my deal or no deal", but that it's "my deal or perhaps no Brexit at all".

On the same Sky News programme, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn publicly softened his own words on the issue of a "people's vote".

While not embracing the concept of a referendum now, he did say it was an "option for the future".

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Corbyn: I've not read all of Brexit deal

This comes a day after shadow chancellor John McDonnell also admitted to Sky News that Labour's preferred option of a general election would be "difficult" because of the fixed term parliament act.

In many ways that works to the PM's new narrative on the threat to Brexit - the main audience for which is those Conservative MPs thinking of getting in touch with Sir Graham.

Mrs May described the coming week as "critical", announcing she would be visiting EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels.

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Corbyn: Second Brexit vote is 'option for future'

Will the importance of the coming days lead to MPs and unhappy cabinet ministers backing off? Clearly that is number 10's hope.

The other key message from the PM was that negotiations are ongoing - but only on the future relationship.

The Northern Ireland backstop and withdrawal agreement are closed.

On that basis, it is difficult to see how MPs who are angry about the backstop will change their minds.

While the PM may try to argue that the future relationship could yet be a Canada plus type arrangement, the horse may well have bolted already.

So Mrs May is in a critical situation.

Her defence to those who want to topple her, is that it could also topple Brexit - their long-held political dream.

All of which raises the stakes even more.