Three months until Brexit: What we know is going to happen
Tuesday 15 January 2019 09:49, UK
By Aubrey Allegretti, political reporter
Happy New Year! The Christmas holidays may be over and you may have noticed Easter eggs on the shelves but there is another key date coming up.
It's less than three months until Brexit.
The twists and turns that have led us to this point have proved how much the path has been paved with uncertainty.
But on 29 March, the UK is due to leave the European Union by default.
Most of what happens between then and now is uncertain - or unknown.
Here's what we do know will happen.
MPs return to parliament after the Christmas break spent in their constituencies.
Fresh in their minds will be their constituents' views - whether in support of or angry with the progress the government has made with leaving the EU.
On that day, there's no major Brexit business on the agenda, but it will be the first chance for MPs to ask any "urgent question" they want about anything a government minister hasn't been forced to answer yet.
On their third day back, the big debate on Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal begins.
It is a restart of the discussion MPs held in December in the run up to the "meaningful vote" - the crunch point where they were supposed to decide whether to endorse or reject the deal.
At some point the next week will be the rescheduled vote that will rubber stamp or thwart Mrs May's deal.
Sky News understands the date chosen by Downing Street is Tuesday 15 January.
The prime minister admitted she faced the likelihood of "significant" defeat the last time - will she have done enough to change MPs' minds?
Labour has already said it is "inevitable" it will try to oust Mrs May by calling a vote of no confidence in her government - if the deal falls.
That would open up a Pandora's Box of Brexit, which could see the prime minister replaced and possibly another general election.
If Mrs May is defeated, the government has a 21-day deadline to draw up and then report on a plan for its next steps.
If Mrs May wins, the divorce agreement will be submitted as a formal piece of legislation.
It will contain all the promises agreed by the EU - on citizens' rights, the financial settlement, transition and Irish backstop.
Provided all that goes smoothly, the deal needs approval in two more ways: by the European Parliament and by the EU27 leaders in a final meeting.
But if there is still no deal agreed at all the levels needed, Brexit could be delayed - or even cancelled.
Unless the government changes its mind, the UK is due to leave the EU at 11pm (UK time) on 29 March 2019.
The date marks two years since Article 50 was triggered - the mechanism any member state who wants to leave the bloc has to trigger.
It will be two years from the point Mrs May signed a letter doing just that, hand-delivered by Britain's ambassador to the EU, Sir Tim Barrow, in Brussels.
If the deal is signed and sealed, next on the agenda will be the UK and EU sitting down for trade talks.
A transition period will keep rules and regulations much the same as they are now.
But it runs out on 31 December 2020.
A new deal on the future relationship will need to be negotiated before then to stop the Irish backstop kicking in.
If the deal has fallen at any stage, one of two things will happen.
The UK could remain in the EU, either if leaders approve an extension to Article 50 or the UK decides to revoke it completely and cancel Brexit.
Or it could leave with no deal, which would occur automatically if neither of these things happen.