Tory leadership: Can Jeremy Hunt possibly beat Boris Johnson?
If the foreign secretary is seen as a less fearsome opponent than Michael Gove, how should he take the fight to the frontrunner?
Thursday 27 June 2019 11:26, UK
Dirty tricks allegations are still reverberating around Westminster, after Michael Gove was knocked out of the leadership race by the knife-edge margin of just two votes.
The accusation - which is denied - is that the Boris camp engineered a run-off in which he could outshine the calm and sensible foreign secretary, rather than endure what some say would have been a takedown from the man who destroyed his leadership hopes in 2016.
In a secret ballot, it will never be proven either way, but as Mr Gove's team lick their wounds, Jeremy Hunt has little time to show he can make this month-long final a real contest.
The postal ballots will drop on members' doorsteps in just two weeks' time.
Close allies of Mr Johnson have made little secret of the fact that Mr Hunt was their preferred opponent, not just to avoid a Tory "psychodrama" but because he voted Remain back in 2016.
The vote worked out beautifully for Mr Johnson's ruthlessly-prepared team who have been running detailed spreadsheets on Tory MPs and carefully gaming the numbers for three months.
A dejected Gove supporter told me this morning: "The media, the membership and the Brexit Party will say Hunt is a Remainer. That's it - he will have handed victory to Boris on a plate."
How then does Mr Hunt deliver on his promise on social media to give Mr Johnson "the fight of his life" and avoid the perception that he's the Establishment candidate, who had to reassure Tory MPs he wouldn't be "Theresa May in trousers"?
His first aim is to be visible.
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Aside from the 16 regional hustings around the country, in front of party members, Mr Johnson is likely to stick to his submarine strategy of avoiding media exposure.
Mr Hunt, who has described himself as the "underdog", can be all over it.
Amber Rudd, one of his most vocal supporters who famously described Mr Johnson as "not the man you want driving you home at the end of the evening", is understood to be pushing for her candidate to tackle Mr Johnson's fitness for high office head-on.
But several of his supporters stressed the need not to stray into negative campaigning, or question Mr Johnson's personal integrity.
One said: "He's delivered in government for nine years, he was a good foreign secretary.
"Boris was the opposite, with that appalling mistake on Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe. That's the big difference.
"In terms of the negotiations, I personally think change on the backstop is unlikely.
"But he is a hundred times more likely to achieve it than Boris who has fallen out with everyone in Europe. Not all our members want no-deal, although I accept a lot of them do."
Others point to Mr Hunt's strongest moment during the BBC debate when he asked Mr Johnson what he would say to a sheep farmer whose livelihood had been destroyed by a no-deal exit, because of tariffs which would be levied on dairy products, as an example of how he can apply pressure.
"He's run a super-clean campaign so far, and can skewer Boris on detail", one MP claimed.
"A lot of people on the hardline wing of the party have been led to believe Boris will give them their individual dream, but Jeremy will provide a bit of a reality check", they added.
An MP on a rival campaign pointed out his safe image could play well with members, saying: "He looks the part, he's who you'd want as your son-in-law, he can use that to his advantage."
But it's not clear that the bulk of the 160,000 Tory members will be very receptive to the message that Brexit will be hard-going.
According to research by Professor Tim Bale at Queen Mary University of London, who has looked at the views of party members, found well over half - 57% - support a no-deal exit.
Brexit questions will dominate the campaign trail, and while Mr Johnson has a formidable coalition of supporters in parliament, they range from hardline members of the ERG - who insist he will rip up the withdrawal agreement - to Remainers who believe no-deal is not deliverable.
Mr Hunt's supporters say Mr Johnson is telling everyone what they want to hear.
"We need to know if his Brexit plan is what he told Mark Francois or what he told Matt Hancock," one said.
The foreign secretary has already faced questions about his flirtation with the idea of a second referendum and whether his claim that he would deliver no-deal if necessary is genuine.
It is clear that some Hunt supporters are simply pinning their hopes on a Boris Johnson implosion under pressure.
An ally said: "Jeremy is consistent and unlikely to reveal anything damaging that we don't know about him.
"But the person with the best chance of beating Boris is Boris. Yes he's popular and has that sparkle, but he'll trip up."