Tory leadership race: Time for candidates to go toe-to-toe with Johnson
After the first round of voting, the biggest gains will come for the candidate who inspires and excites their colleagues the most.
Thursday 13 June 2019 22:40, UK
Despite the bullish statements released by all the surviving leadership camps after the first round leadership vote, most of them were left disappointed.
Boris Johnson and Rory Stewart were the exception. The former foreign secretary's epic lead - which his supporters predict could extend to half Tory parliamentary party by the next round vote on Tuesday - is unassailable in this part of the process.
Meanwhile, Mr Stewart looked like he surprised himself by surviving the first round cull.
But the other five all had reasons to lick their wounds, as the battle to remain in the contest ahead of the next round on Tuesday prepares to enter a new and uglier phase.
Jeremy Hunt's team were boasting of a "30% increase on the vote" among MPs but, despite this, still had 43 votes of the 313 Tory MPs onside, putting him only seven ahead of Michael Gove.
Mr Hunt has run a campaign as an establishment candidate - yet cannot claim to have nearly enough support yet to know he will be in the final two.
Mr Gove remains in the race without signs, yet, of new enthusiastic supporters rushing to his side. Momentum in the Gove campaign stalled when Amber Rudd - the most high profile moderniser in the cabinet and a vote his team symbolically needed to win - took her support elsewhere.
Meanwhile, Sajid Javid, the home secretary whose punchy campaign launch and glitzy video prompted claims of momentum, was on just 23 votes in a crowded field of modernisers with Matt Hancock on 20 and Mr Stewart on 19.
Mr Raab did barely better than his public nominations on 27. His campaign struggled after failing to attract the bulk of the party's hard Brexiteers in the European Research Group - who should be his natural allies - after private hustings last week.
Given that most of the remaining votes are from the modernising wing of the party, unless Mr Johnson wrecks his Brexit credentials Mr Raab will struggle to regain momentum.
So while Mr Johnson has made it, it is far from clear who will emerge to face him in the final. Various campaign sources said they did not expect anyone to do deals or pull out voluntarily until at least Monday, because the first televised debate of the contest is set for Sunday night.
However, it appeared Matt Hancock could bow out as early as Friday, pulling up stumps early in the hope he may yet have a future shot at the top job.
The biggest change is a concession, among opponents of Mr Johnson, that they may have been getting their strategy wrong.
Their approach has worked to the former foreign secretary's advantage, potentially throwing away the slimmest chance of stopping him seizing the crown in five weeks time.
"Everyone believes that Boris still has the potential to implode. He's just one gaffe away from it," said one rival campaign source.
But the lack of coherent, unified attack on Mr Johnson from all the rivals allowed him latitude to build a comprehensive lead. Mr Javid presented Mr Johnson's establishment credentials, Mr Gove suggested Mr Johnson is hiding away while Mr Stewart was the only candidate to monster Mr Johnson fully.
The source went on: "Everyone has been focused on getting on the ballot alongside Boris that we have managed to give him a free pass ever since the European election.
"Other than Rory Stewart, no-one else has been going toe-to-toe with Boris. So now everyone is trying to work out how to change their fire and train it on him, but the truth is we're coming late to the game."
What is needed now is a sense of excitement somewhere among the remaining six fighting for second spot.
Mr Javid has released polling of Tory members by YouGov suggesting that he can "relate to the challenges faced by ordinary people" better than his rivals, including Mr Johnson. Mr Hunt comes at the bottom of the five person list.
Such claims will become increasingly important. As all of the contenders turn their fire on Mr Johnson, the biggest gains in the coming days will come for the candidate who can inspire and excite their colleagues the most.