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Turkey is deliberately raising the spectre of a repeat of the 2015 migration crisis.

It even laid on buses to take refugees from Istanbul to the border and has reportedly been advising them on the best places to cross.

It is doing so as a clear warning to the EU. Help us in Syria or there is more of this to come.

It is not an idle threat. In just one day a steady stream of refugees has been filmed crossing the border or trying to, forcing the Greek police to use tear gas.

Dinghies have resumed the sea crossing to Lesbos.

There is no reason to believe that stream could easily turn into a tide of humanity.

Talk to Syrians in Turkey and most will tell you they want to get to Europe.

Turkey wants European nations to put pressure on Russia to stop its remorseless advance with Syrian forces into Idlib.

But its tactics smack of desperation. If Europe had a way of stopping Russia and Assad it would have found it years ago.

Turkey is desperate to contain the humanitarian crisis in Idlib and not let it spill over its border. It has sent tanks and troops into Idlib to stem the Russian-Syrian advance, but it is suffering serious losses.

Turkey has committed a fundamental error in its Idlib deployment by sending in heavy armour without air cover. Russia and Syria have shown no compunction in attacking its positions, killing more than thirty soldiers in the latest strike.

Turkey called an emergency meeting of Nato but received only words of support. Nato is not about to get drawn into a conflict with Russia by shooting down its planes or those of its ally.

Checkmate for Turkey? Possibly. It faces the starkest of choices. It can starting shooting down Russian planes itself and risk the consequences.

Or it can retreat from Idlib to stop losing more troops and watch the province descend into a bloodbath, the eventual victory of its allies' sworn enemies and a possible humanitarian disaster propelling hundreds of thousands of Syrians across its border.