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Sanctions on Russia are insufficient to force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table - only US military aid can do so, according to a leading think thank.

Putin believes he can make creeping advances on the battlefield longer than Ukraine can defend it and than the West is willing to lend its support, the Institute for the Study of War said.

Higher, unsustainable Russian casualty rates would "risk Putin's efforts to balance 'butter and guns' and maintain domestic support", said the ISW.

"The United States must continue equipping Ukrainian soldiers as Russia's battlefield losses remain the key driver of Russia's current materiel, manpower, and economic problems.

"Western aid, particularly of weapons systems that only the United States can provide at scale and quickly, would allow Ukrainian forces to better defend their positions, slow Russian advances, and inflict even more serious losses on the Russian military."

Putin's strategy of incremental gains will "very likely" continue to guide his refusal to engage in peace negotiations, the ISW said.

Pictures show Ukrainian soldiers loading a rocket launcher on the frontline in the Zaporizhzhia region.

The 31st Separate Mechanised Brigade was firing a BM-21 Grad multiple launcher from a poppy field toward Russian troops.

 Russia claims it has reached the Dnipropetrovsk region in Ukraine, according to reports.

Dnipropetrovsk is located on the western border of the Donetsk region and northern border of the Zaporizhzhia region.

The Russian defence ministry said a tank division had advanced to the western border of Donetsk and was continuing its advance into Dnipropetrovsk, news agency reported.

Last month, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk regional military administration Serhiy Lysak said Russia was spreading disinformation about entering the region to sow panic.

Sky News cannot independently verify these battlefield reports.

On Friday, the Institute for the Study of War assessed the control zones to be as follows...

Trains transporting the bodies of Ukrainian soldiers will start moving to the border in an hour, according to Russian state media 

TASS quoted Russia's Lieutenant General Alexander Zorin as saying there were also signals that the transfer of the bodies will be postponed until next week. 

It's the latest in a series of ambiguous comments from Moscow, which yesterday accused Ukraine of delaying the exchange of prisoners and bodies.

Ukraine denied the allegation, saying Russia had not stuck to the agreement over which prisoners it wanted released and was acting unilaterally over the bodies of deceased soldiers, as no swap date had been agreed.

The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia was attempting to undermine the prisoner swap and confidence in wider peace negotiations.

Russia launched a drone and missile attack against Ukraine overnight, according to the Ukrainian air force.

Some 49 attack drones assaulted the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, in the northeast and southeast of Ukraine, respectively.

Russian forces also fired three missiles from occupied Crimea and Zaporizhzhia. 

"The air attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare and unmanned systems units, and mobile fire groups of the defence forces of Ukraine," said the Ukrainian airforce.

Defences took down 40 of the drones, it said.

Russia's accusation that Ukraine was delaying a prisoner of war exchange is baseless, says a leading think tank.

The blame game is part of the Kremlin's efforts to undermine the confidence-building measure and wider peace negotiations, the Institute for the Study of War said.

Ukraine and Russia were set to exchange 500 prisoners of war each this weekend, after an agreement was reached to swap up to 1,200 soldiers each at talks in Istanbul and to repatriate the bodies of dead soldiers.

"The Kremlin remains committed to promoting narratives that vilify Ukraine, likely to socialise its domestic audience ahead of Russia's possible rejection of any peace agreement in the future and to discredit Ukraine on the international stage," said the ISW.

"The Kremlin's unwillingness to engage in good faith in lower-level confidence-building measures designed to facilitate larger peace negotiations further demonstrates Russia's disinterest in peace negotiations."

Kremlin aide Vladimir MedinAG百家乐在线官网 had said the Russian defence ministry's contact group was on the border with Ukraine to meet Ukrainian negotiators yesterday, but they did not turn up.

Ukraine said the list of prisoners Russia wanted returned did not meet the criteria agreed in Istanbul: young, wounded, or seriously ill soldiers.

MedinAG百家乐在线官网 also said that 1,212 bodies of killed Ukrainian soldiers were in refrigerated containers at the exchange point.

Ukraine said a date had not been agreed for their repatriation.

"Instead of consistently implementing the agreed algorithm, the Russian side resorted to unilateral actions that were not agreed upon within the framework of the joint process."

Earlier this morning, we reported on the beliefs of Western officials that Russia will retaliate with a "huge", multi-pronged attack for Ukraine's Operation Spider's Web.

Here we take a look at the operation in detail.

A week ago today, Kyiv launched 117 drones deep from within Russian territory.

They were smuggled into Russia beneath the retractable roofs of wooden sheds, transported to locations close to military bases on lorries and piloted remotely to hit strategic, nuclear-capable bombers.

An image shared by Ukrainian authorities showed an example of around 20 drones placed in wooden cavities below a roof.

Baza news service, which has close contacts in Russian security and law enforcement, said the drivers of four trucks, who apparently did not know about the cargo, were told to drive to different destinations across Russia.

Ukraine released footage on Wednesday showing its drones striking Russian strategic bombers and landing on the dome antennas of two A-50 military spy planes, of which there are only a handful in Russia's fleet.

Sky News military analyst Michael Clarke takes a look at a video of the attack here...

Russia's defence ministry acknowledged Ukraine targeted airfields in the Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur regions.

Volodymyr ZelenAG百家乐在线官网y said 41 Russian aircraft were struck and half were too damaged to be repaired.

US officials put the number at 20 warplanes hit and 10 destroyed.

Satellite imagery shows what appear to be damaged Russian Tu-95 heavy bombers and Tu-22 Backfires, supersonic strategic bombers that Russia has used to launch missile strikes against Ukraine.

Ukraine's domestic security agency, the SBU, said its attack did $7bn-worth of damage and hit 34% of the strategic cruise missile carriers at Russia's main airfields.

Russia says Ukraine launched a drone attack targeting Moscow early this morning.

It forced the closure of two of the key airports serving the capital, Russian authorities said.

Air defence units destroyed nine Ukrainian drones heading towards Moscow by 3am (UK time), Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said.

One drone attack sparked a fire at the Azot chemical plant in the Tula region, injuring two people and seven drones were destroyed over the Kaluga region, regional governors said. 

Both regions border the Moscow region to the south of the capital. 

Russia's civil aviation authority Rosaviatsia said it was halting flights at the Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports. 

Sky News cannot independently verify these reports.

The US believes that Vladimir Putin's retaliation for Ukraine's attack on Russia's strategic bombers has not taken place yet.

The Russian defence ministry had said its barrage of missile, bomb and drone attacks on Friday was in response to the Ukrainian operation, but a US official has told Reuters the complete response is yet to come.

Moscow is likely to launch a significant, multi-pronged strike, they said.

The timing was unclear, with one source saying it was expected within days. 

A second US official said the retaliation was likely to include different kinds of air capabilities, including missiles and drones.

The first official said Moscow's attack would be "asymmetrical," meaning that its approach and targeting would not mirror Ukraine's strike last weekend against Russian warplanes.

A Western diplomatic source said that while Russia's response may have started, it would likely intensify with strikes against symbolic Ukrainian targets like government buildings, in an effort to send a clear message to Kyiv.

Another senior Western diplomat anticipated a further devastating assault by Moscow. 

"It will be huge, vicious and unrelenting," the diplomat said. "But the Ukrainians are brave people."

Michael Kofman, a Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said he expected Moscow might seek to punish Ukraine's domestic security agency, the SBU, for its role in last weekend's assault on its airbases.

To send a message, Russia could employ intermediate-range ballistic missiles for the attack, he said.

"In general, Russia's ability to substantially escalate strikes from what they are already doing - and attempting to do over the past month - is quite constrained," he said.

Welcome back to our live coverage of the war in Ukraine, after at least four people were killed in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv by a series of Russian attacks.

Before we resume our live coverage, here is a recap of the key developments that took place yesterday.

• A planned Russia-Ukraine prisoner swap descended into a blame game and uncertainty;
• The warring nations were supposed to exchange 500 prisoners as the first step in a 1,000-for-1,000 swap, but it has not taken place yet;
• Meanwhile, Kyiv's airforce said it shot down a Russian Su-35 fighter jet.